Daily Forex Recommendation & Analysis

Asian Market Update

2008-05-23T15:44:00.000+07:00

The dollar steadied on Friday as oil prices eased on profit-taking after hitting fresh record highs, but the currency stayed in sight of a one-month low against the euro on worries that inflation could lead to a deeper U.S. slowdown.

The dollar tends to move in the opposite direction to oil, and it took a hit on Thursday as oil jumped above $135 for the first time, fuelling concerns about the U.S. economy just as the Federal Reserve is expected to halt its run of interest rate cuts to bolster the country's growth.

The euro held its ground, partly because recent solid data from the euro zone's largest economy, Germany, nurtured speculation that the European Central Bank was more likely to raise rates than cut after keeping them at 4 percent this week.

The yen came under pressure as rising energy prices would also hurt Japan's growth, which is showing signs of softening.

The euro was little changed from late U.S. trade at $1.5731, after rising to a one-month high above $1.5800 on Thursday.

Solid stock markets may spur risk-taking and prompt investors into carry trades, where they use low-yielding currencies such as the yen to buy higher-yielding assets and currencies, undermining the yen, traders said.

The dollar was up nearly 0.1 percent at 104.14 yen, after slipping below 103 yen the previous day. Traders said the dollar was supported by buying from Japanese retail investors and importers but resistance was firm around 105 yen due to Japanese exporter selling.

The single currency was up 0.1 percent against the yen at 163.80 yen.

The rise in bond yields around the globe on inflation concerns also highlights how low Japanese interest rates are, further reducing incentives to buy yen, a dealer at a U.S. securities firm said.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.5 percent earlier this week and is expected to hold them until global economic prospects become clearer. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the downside risks to the global economy remained high.

U.S. crude ended Thursday down $2.36 at $130.81 after soaring to a record high of $135.09.

Earlier this week, the Fed downgraded its 2008 U.S. economic growth forecast and raised its inflation outlook.

The Fed has cut interest rates to 2 percent from 5.25 percent since September, but markets now expect the central bank to hold steady and possibly raise rates by the end of the year.

Traders said they were waiting for a U.S. report on existing home sales due on Friday for clues on the dollar's direction.

Technicals

EUR/USD

Eased back from 1.5800/14 high as daily tools unwind overbought readings. Pullback has since found support at the 1.5681/1.5700 area though scope is seen for deeper drop. Below to see additional support at 1.5600/30 area, expected to hold for renewed upside test.

GBP/USD

Resistance at 1.9890/00, 1.9850 and 1.9900. Support at 1.9770 and 1.9730/40.

USD/JPY

Trade confined within a 3-week triangle pattern with rebound from 102.73 low back to test the 100-day MA, currently at 104.40. Break over this will see scope for return to 104.69 then the 105.25, triangle top. Support now at 103.64 and 103.45, hold above the latter to keep bull bias in play.

EUR/JPY

Clearance over the 163.00/10 resistance extends the recovery from the 158.60 low and target 163.90 next. Beyond this eye retest of the trendline from the Jul 07 high, now at 164.50, then the 164.98 Apr peak. The 163.00/10 area now initial support ahead of 162.26/50 area seen sustaining the bull tone.

AUD/USD

Bulls on hold as setback from the .9651/55 high see bear engulfing candle weighing. Resistance now at .9615/20 area and unless regained see risk for a deeper drop ahead. Below the .9544 low see support coming in at the .9510 to .9480 area.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-12-07T09:58:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
7 December 2007 05:45:00
Closed: 2.0274
Secara Teknikal Bullish Pattern GBP/USD belum berubah sebelum mencapai next target 1.99 (Macro), Micro-term Sterling rentan akan Reversal. Pada Interval (H1) Indikator RSI (Neutral) dan Oscilator Stochastic cenderung lemah.
Jika Key Resistance 2.0393 berhasil ditembus, membuka peluang bagi Sterling mencapai resistance berikutnya. Key Support 2.0160 berhasil ditembus Sterling berpeluang terkoreksi turun menuju zona support.

Expected Range : 2.0156 - 2.0380
Support : 2.0245 / 2.0156 / 2.0085
Resistance : 2.0350 / 2.0450 / 2.0516
Recommendation : Buy 2.0309 TP 2.0368 SL 2.0271
Sell 2.0239 TP 2.0177 SL 2.0273

EUR/USD
7 December 2007 05:22:26
Closed: 1.4627
Secara Teknikal EUR/USD menunjukan Down-trend dan Micro-Term Euro menunjukkan Bullish Reversal Pada Interval (H1) Indikator RSI dan Oscilator Stochastic cenderung lemah, Euro berpeluang Bullish jika level 1.4680 berhasil di lewati jika gagal Euro berpeluang turun
Key Resistance1.4768 berhasil dilewati membuka peluang bagi pair ini untuk menuju Resistance berikutnya. Key Support di 1.4500 di tembus Euro mampu terstimulasi turun.

Expected Range : 1.4550 - 1.4714
Support : 1.4586 / 1.4520 / 1.4444
Resistance : 1.4670 / 1.4694 / 1.4769
Recommendation : Buy 1.4653 TP 1.4712 SL 1.4632
Sell 1.4586 TP 1.4528 SL 1.4618

USD / JPY
7 December 2007 05:40:03
Closed: 111.26
Secara Teknikal USD/JPY menunjukkan Down-Trend dan Micro-term mengarah pada arah Recovery Indikator RSI dan Oscilator Stcohastic pada Interval (H1) cenderung Sideways (lemah), Jika level 111.29 (0.00% Fibonacci Retracement) berhasil di tembus, JPY berpotensi naik namun peluang turun terbuka jika gagal test level tsb.
Key Resistance 111.30/60 berhasil ditembus Yen berpotensi untuk naik dan Key Support 109.30 berhasil di lewati JPY mampu menyentuh Zona Support berikutnya.

Expected Range : 110.32 - 112.78
Support : 110.84 / 110.30 / 109.55
Resistance : 111.74 / 112.88 / 113.46
Recommendation : Buy 111.37 TP 111.92 SL 111.00
Sell 111.12 TP 110.56 SL 111.45

USD/CHF
7 December 2007 05:53:53
Closed: 1.1299
Secara Teknikal USD/CHF membentuk Trend Bearish (Macro), Micro-term Franc masih bergerak dalam Bullish Reversal, Pada Interval (H1) Indikator RSI dan Oscilator Stochastic cenderung Neutral. Franc mampu mencapai next target berikutnya Jika resistance 1.1352 berhasil di tembus peluang turun masih ada jika MA 9 X MA 18 dengan level tahanan 1.1260
Jika Key Resistance 1.1390 berhasil di break, Franc berpeluang naik. Jika Key Support 1.1120 berhasil di Break Franc mampu terstimulasi turun.

Expected Range : 1.1175- 1.1380
Support : 1.1245 / 1.1214 / 1.1159
Resistance : 1.1324 / 1.1350 / 1.1421
Recommendation : Buy 1.1340 TP 1.1396 SL 1.1309
Sell 1.1272 TP 1.1219 SL 1.1305

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-11-29T13:16:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
29 November 2007 05:20:37
Closed: 2.0813

Expected Range : 2.0694 - 2.0908
Support : 2.0784 / 2.0725 / 2.0684
Resistance : 2.0844 / 2.0882 / 2.0944
Recommendation : Buy 2.0766 TP 2.0816 SL 2.0736
Sell 2.0868 TP 2.0818 SL 2.0898

EUR/USD
29 November 2007 05:02:23
Closed:1.4830

Expected Range : 1.4848 - 1.4636
Support : 1.4776 / 1.4732 / 1.4681
Resistance : 1.4858 / 1.4908 / 1.4967
Recommendation : Buy 1.4856 TP 1.4906 SL 1.4826
Sell 1.4902 TP 1.4852 SL 1.4932

USD / JPY
29 November 2007 05:19:18
Closed: 110.10

Expected Range : 109.20 - 111.25
Support : 109.41 / 108.54 / 107.96
Resistance : 110.83 / 111.32 / 111.89
Recommendation : Buy 109.26 TP 109.76 SL 108.96
Sell 110.68 TP 110.18 SL 110.98

USD/CHF
29 November 2007 05:30:42
Closed: 1.1115

Expected Range : 1.1050 - 1.1259
Support : 1.1071 / 1.1030 / 1.0954
Resistance : 1.1207 / 1.1242 / 1.1298
Recommendation : Buy 1.1063 TP 1.1113 SL 1.1033
Sell 1.1146 TP 1.1096 SL 1.1176

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-11-28T08:35:00.001+07:00

GBP / USD
28 November 2007 06:16:38
Closed: 2.0684

Expected Range : 2.0583 - 2.0800
Support : 2.0636 / 2.0569 / 2.0514
Resistance : 2.0718 / 2.0756 / 2.0845
Recommendation : Buy 2.0768 TP 2.0818 SL 2.0738
Sell 2.0633 TP 2.0583 SL 2.0663

EUR/USD
28 November 2007 05:43:07
Closed:1.4820

Expected Range : 1.4700 - 1.4900
Support : 1.4804 / 1.4769 / 1.4737
Resistance : 1.4846 / 1.4878 / 1.4920
Recommendation : Buy 1.4861 TP 1.4911 SL 1.4831
Sell 1.4807 TP 1.4757 SL 1.4837

USD / JPY
28 November 2007 06:13:02
Closed: 108.95

Expected Range : 107.00 - 109.00
Support : 108.63 / 108.30 / 107.89
Resistance : 109.14 / 109.49 / 109.92
Recommendation : Buy 109.00 TP 109.50 SL 108.70
Sell 109.67 TP 109.17 SL 109.97

USD/CHF
28 November 2007 06:21:32
Closed: 1.1052

Expected Range : 1.0900 - 1.1100
Support : 1.1030 / 1.1009 / 1.0962
Resistance : 1.1080 / 1.1120 / 1.1171
Recommendation : Buy 1.1069 TP 1.1119 SL 1.1039
Sell 1.1137 TP 1.1087 SL 1.1167

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-11-08T09:33:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
8 November 2007 05:51:08
Closed: 2.1022

Expected Range : 2.0950 - 2.1110
Support : 2.0985 / 2.0905 / 2.0865
Resistance : 2.1060 / 2.1106 / 2.1155
Recommendation : Buy 2.0880, TP 2.0930, SL 2.0850
Sell 2.0990, TP 2.0940, SL 2.1020

EUR/USD
8 November 2007 05:42:03
Closed: 1.4641

Expected Range : 1.4550 - 1.4750
Support : 1.4605 / 1.4555 / 1.4485
Resistance : 1.4697 / 1.4735 / 1.4789
Recommendation : Buy 1.4702, TP 1.4752, SL 1.4672
Sell 1.4652, TP 1.4602, SL 1.4682

USD / JPY
8 November 2007 05:38:13
Closed: 112.83

Expected Range : 112.10 - 114.35
Support : 112.57 / 112.02 / 111.77
Resistance : 113.02 / 113.77 / 114.01
Recommendation : Buy 113.37, TP 113.87, SL 113.07
Sell 114.57, TP 114.07, SL 114.87

USD/CHF
8 November 2007 05:51:27
Closed: 1.1330

Expected Range : 1.1250 - 1.1465
Support : 1.1287 / 1.1235 / 1.1175
Resistance : 1.1393 / 1.1460 / 1.1543
Recommendation : Buy 1.1355, TP 1.1405, SL 1.1325
Sell 1.1423, TP 1.1373, SL 1.1453

UPDATE: BOJ Minutes Show External Factors Made BOJ Hold

2007-11-05T09:06:00.000+07:00

TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- Minutes of the Bank of Japan's September policy board meeting show how negative external factors made it all but impossible for the central bank to lift interest rates.

Those factors haven't ebbed, suggesting that the BOJ likely won't be able to tighten monetary policy for the rest of the year.

The minutes for the BOJ policy-setting meeting Sept. 18-19 meeting released Monday said board members think Japan's economy and prices will likely move in line with the bank's forecasts.

However, "global financial markets continue to be unstable and uncertainty regarding global economic developments was heightening, mainly due to increasing downside risks to the U.S. economy," the minutes said.

Read More ....

[ Source : Dow Jones News Wire ]

NFP Beat Expectations But Will It Be Enough to Save The Dollar?

2007-11-05T08:31:00.000+07:00

Non Farm payrolls for October printed much better than expected at 166,000 jobs versus 85,000 forecast, confirming earlier reports in the week that pointed to a rebound in the US labor markets. The unemployment rate remained the same at 4.7% as did the average weekly hours at 33.8. However, the one dark cloud in the report was the weaker than expected rise in average hourly earnings which increased only 3.8% versus 4.0% projected.

Read More ....

[ Source : Daily FX ]

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD

2007-11-02T13:57:00.000+07:00

EUR/USD - 1.4426...The single currency declined in European morning y'day
to 1.4404 due to cross selling in euro esp vs sterling n chf b4 briefly recover-
ing to 1.4479 in U.S. session, however, unwinding in eur/jpy on risk aversion
due to the selloff in U.S. stocks pressured price again in NY afternoon.

Read More ....

[ Source : Ace Trader ]

Stock prices plunge causing risk aversion. High Yielder's head lower

2007-11-02T13:40:00.000+07:00

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) rebounded against a number of currencies as investors took a risk aversion approach to the market. A sharp plunge in stock prices prompted investors to unwind risky trades on a rebounding Japanese yen, relieving the USD against a number of currencies. Many of the moves were prompted by another two earnings downgrade by Citigroup, pushing share prices lower by 6.6%. In other data news, releases were mixed on Thursday, with positive readings in Durable Goods, whilst ISM manufacturing failed to provide any further support coming in softer than expected at 50.9, it lowest level since March. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was down 64.29 points (-2.25%) whilst the Dow Jones plummeted 362.14 points (-2.6%). Crude oil traded at another record high of US$96.24 a barrel to before closing lower by US$1.04 a barrel to US$93.49. Looking ahead, plenty of emphasis will be placed on Non Farm Payrolls. Payrolls will be supported by other jobs data in Unemployment rate for the month of October.

Read More .....

[ Source : Easy Forex]

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Yesterday US Federal Reserve reduced the rate by 25 basic points again …

2007-11-02T13:27:00.000+07:00

Yesterday the Federal Reserve once again reduced the rate by 25 basic points. That caused the bear impulse on dollar on forex and the bull impulse at stock exchange.

The dollar tested the next price low on euro in spite of the fact that decrease in the rate was expected by the market. The overwhelming majority of analysts did not doubt that FRS would again dip the rate after a series of negative news on the market of the real estate and industry. However, what is bad for dollar is good for the financial markets of the USA

Read More...

[Source:OpenForex Forex Forecast]

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-11-02T12:40:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
2 November 2007 06:38:53
Closed; 2.0787

Expected Range : 2.0680 - 2.0830
Support : 2.0744 / 2.0687 / 2.0617
Resistance : 2.0835 / 2.0876 / 2.0925
Recommendation : buy 2.0808 tp 2.0858 sl 2.0778
sell 2.0846 tp 2.0796 sl 2.0876

EUR/USD
2 November 2007 06:39:03
Closed: 1.4486

Expected Range : 1.4370 - 1.4500
Support : 1.4395 / 1.4355 / 1.4306
Resistance : 1.4502 / 1.4531 / 1.4567
Recommendation : buy 1.4437 tp 1.4487 sl 1.4407
sell 1.4480 tp 1.4430 sl 1.4510

USD / JPY
2 November 2007 06:30:56
Closed: 114.59

Expected Range : 114.00 - 115.35
Support : 114.25 / 113.89 / 113.37
Resistance : 115.02 / 115.55 / 116.17
Recommendation : buy 115.14 tp 115.64 sl 114.86
sell 115.67 tp 115.17 sl 115.97

USD/CHF
2 November 2007 06:39:49
Closed : 1.1582

Expected Range : 1.1669 - 1.1554
Support : 1.1545 / 1.1516 / 1.1472
Resistance : 1.1630 / 1.1669 / 1.1691
Recommendation : buy 1.1590 tp 1.1640 sl 1.1560
sell 1.1620 tp 1.1570 sl 1.1650

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-10-25T15:37:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
25 October 2007 14:05:14
price ; 2.047

Expected Range : 2.0549 - 2.0257
Support : 2.0424 / 2.0323 / 2.0257
Resistance : 2.0516 / 2.0549 / 2.0652
Recommendation : Sell 2.0420, SL 2.0470, TP 2.0370
Sell 2.0535-45, SL 2.0585, TP 2.0485

EUR/USD
25 October 2007 14:35:21
price ; 1.4255

Expected Range : 1.4300 - 1.4100
Support : 1.4188 / 1.4126 / 1.4071
Resistance : 1.4289 / 1.4338 / 1.4400
Recommendation : Sell 1.4245, SL 1.4295, TP 1.4195

USD / JPY
25 October 2007 14:53:37
price ; 114.17

Expected Range : 115.87 - 112.60
Support : 113.80 / 113.25 / 112.60
Resistance : 115.02 / 115.71-87 / 116.17
Recommendation : Sell 113.75, SL 114.25, TP 113.25
Buy 114.35, SL 113.85, TP 114.85

USD/CHF
25 October 2007 15:42:21
price ; 1.1713

Expected Range : 1.1785 - 1.1601
Support : 1.1684 / 1.1601 / 1.1564
Resistance : 1.1734 / 1.1785 / 1.1844
Recommendation : Buy 1.1735, SL 1.1685, TP 1.1785
Sell 1.1680, SL 1.1730, TP 1.1630

WINNING SOLUTION SIGNAL

2007-10-25T13:46:00.000+07:00

By: Winning Solution System V.9.4.3 Vinal Version

(Time Frame 30M)
Use 5-10% margin only! no more!
Valid Time 00.00 - 17.00 London Time

GBP/USD

Buy Stop : @2.0500 | TP @2.0544 | SL @2.0470
Sell Stop : @2.0460 | TP @2.0428 | SL @2.0490

GBP/JPY

Buy Stop : @234.44 | TP @236.08 | SL @234.14
Sell Limit : @234.04 | TP @232.36 | SL @234.34

EUR/JPY

Buy Stop : @163.06 | TP @164.33 | SL @162.76
Sell Stop : @162.66 | TP @161.49 | SL @162.96

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-10-25T08:37:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
25 October 2007 05:50:51
Closed: 2.0511

Expected Range : 2.0380-2.0630
Support : 2.0450 / 2.0398 / 2.0257
Resistance : 2.0516 / 2.0558 / 2.0652
Recommendation : buy 2.0517 tp 2.0567 sl 2.0487
sell 2.0440 tp 2.0390 sl 2.0470

EUR/USD
25 October 2007 05:51:11
Closed: 1.4262

Expected Range : 1.4150 - 1.4305
Support : 1.4212 / 1.4182 / 1.4122
Resistance : 1.4285 / 1.4310 / 1.4349
Recommendation : buy 1.4280 tp 1.4330 sl 1.4250
sell 1.4230 tp 1.4180 sl 1.4280

USD / JPY
25 October 2007 05:51:32
Closed: 114.86

Expected Range : 112.50 - 115.02
Support : 114.16 / 113.25 / 112.60
Resistance : 114.80 / 115.35/ 115.87
Recommendation : buy 114.80 tp 115.30 sl 114.50
sell 113.60 tp 113.10 sl 113.90

USD/CHF
25 October 2007 05:51:43
Closed : 1.1732

Expected Range : 1.1670 - 1.1863
Support : 1.1656 / 1.1601 / 1.1585
Resistance : 1.1785 / 1.1844 / 1.1893
Recommendation : buy 1.1754 tp 1.1804 sl 1.1624
sell 1.1700 tp 1.1650 sl 1.1730

WINNING SOLUTION SIGNAL

2007-10-24T15:26:00.000+07:00

By: Winning Solution System V.9.4.3 Vinal Version

(Time Frame 30M)
Use 5-10% margin only! no more!
Valid Time 00.00 - 17.00 London Time

GBP/USD

Buy Limit : @2.0464 | TP @2.0603 | SL @2.0434

Sell Stop : @2.0424 | TP @2.0329 | SL @2.0454

GBP/JPY

Buy Limit : @234.71 | TP @237.04 | SL @234.41

Sell Stop : @234.31 | TP @232.57 | SL @234.61

EUR/JPY

Buy Stop : @163.43 | TP @164.61 | SL @163.13

Sell Stop : @163.03 | TP @162.15 | SL @163.33

WINNING SOLUTION SIGNAL

2007-10-10T10:53:00.000+07:00

By: Winning Solution System V.9.4.3 Vinal Version

(Time Frame 30M)
Use 5-10% margin only! no more!
Valid Time 00.00 - 17.00 London Time

GBP/USD

Buy Limit : @2.0360 | TP @2.0436 | SL @2.0330

Sell Stop : @2.0320 | TP @2.0269 | SL @2.0350

GBP/JPY

Buy Limit : @238.53 | TP @239.98 | SL @238.23

Sell Stop : @238.13 | TP @236.91 | SL @238.43

EUR/JPY

Buy Limit : @165.12 | TP @165.83 | SL @164.82

Sell Stop : @164.72 | TP @164.22 | SL @165.02

WINNING SOLUTION SIGNAL

2007-10-09T14:59:00.000+07:00

By: Winning Solution System V.9.4.3 Vinal Version

(Time Frame 30M)
Use 5-10% margin only! no more!
Valid Time 00.00 - 17.00 London Time

GBP/USD

Buy Stop : @2.0393 | TP @2.0430 | SL @2.0363

Sell Limit : @2.0353 | TP @2.0308 | SL @2.0383

GBP/JPY

Buy Stop : @239.30 | TP @239.81 | SL @239.00

Sell Limit : @238.90 | TP @238.34 | SL @239.20

EUR/JPY

Buy Stop : @165.32 | TP @165.78 | SL @165.02

Sell Limit : @164.92 | TP @164.34 | SL @165.22

WINNING SOLUTION SIGNAL

2007-10-05T16:52:00.000+07:00

TIME FRAME 30M
VALID TIME 00.00 - 17.00 LONDON TIME

GBP / USD

Buy Limit : @2.0385 | TP @2.0471 | SL @2.0355

Sell Stop : @2.0345 | TP @2.0274 | SL @2.0375

GBP/JPY

Buy Limit : @237.32 | TP @238.30 | SL @237.02

Sell Stop : @236.92 | TP @236.11 | SL @237.22

EUR/JPY

Buy Stop : @164.68 | TP @165.16 | SL @164.38

Sell Stop : @164.28 | TP @163.91 | SL @164.58

OUR RECOMMENDATIONS

2007-10-05T16:48:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
5 October 2007 15:26:11
price ; 2.0342

Expected Range : 2.0493 - 2.0084
Support : 2.0277 / 2.0195 / 2.0084
Resistance : 2.0427 / 2.0445 / 2.0493
Recommendation : sell 2.0275, SL 2.0325, TP 2.0225
sell 2.0480/500, SL 2.0550, TP 2.0430

EUR/USD
5 October 2007 15:42:37
price ; 1.4112

Expected Range : 1.4200 - 1.4000
Support : 1.4067 / 1.4042 / 1.3988
Resistance : 1.4149 / 1.4200 / 1.4281
Recommendation : sell 1.4125-45, Sl 1.4205, TP 1.4075

USD / JPY
5 October 2007 15:54:47
price ; 116.55

Expected Range : 118.00 - 115.57
Support : 116.26 / 115.57 / 114.66
Resistance : 116.77 / 117.13 / 118.74
Recommendation : buy 116.80, SL 116.30, TP 117.30
sell 116.25, SL 116.75, TP 115.75

USD/CHF
5 October 2007 16:10:15
price ; 1.1772

Expected Range : 1.1846 - 1.1712
Support : 1.1737 / 1.1712 / 1.1658
Resistance : 1.1813 / 1.1846 / 1.1878
Recommendation : buy 1.11750-35, Sl 1.1700, TP 1.1800
sell 1.1800-10, SL 1.1850, TP 1.1750

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-10-04T17:23:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
4 October 2007 14:08:28
price ; 2.0305

Expected Range : 2.0368 - 2.0195
Support : 2.0195 / 2.0084 / 1.9950
Resistance : 2.0330 / 2.0368 / 2.0405
Recommendation : Sell 2.0280, SL 2.0330, TP 2.0230
Buy 2.0335, SL 2.0285, TP 2.0385

EUR/USD
4 October 2007 14:33:46
price ; 1.4096

Expected Range : 1.4200 - 1.3936
Support : 1.4060 / 1.4023 / 1.3936
Resistance : 1.4138 / 1.4200 / 1.4247
Recommendation : Sell 1.4075, SL 1.4125, TP 1.4025
Buy 1.4115, SL 1.4065, TP 1.4165

USD / JPY
4 October 2007 14:51:16
price ; 116.59

Expected Range : 117.58 - 115.57
Support : 116.36 / 115.57 / 115.27
Resistance : 116.77 / 117.13 / 117.58
Recommendation : Buy 116.80, SL 116.30, TP 117.30
Sell 116.30, SL 116.80, TP 115.80

USD/CHF
4 October 2007 15:10:40
price ; 1.1790

Expected Range : 1.1846 - 1.1712
Support : 1.1778 / 1.1712 / 1.1658
Resistance : 1.1808 / 1.1846 / 1.1894
Recommendation : Sell 1.1770, SL 1.1820, TP 1.1720
Buy 1.1810, SL 1.1760, TP 1.1860

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-20T08:18:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
20 September 2007 04:49:24
Closed:2.0006

Expected Range : 1.9921 - 2.0150
Support : 1.9996 / 1.9945 / 1.9893
Resistance : 2.0050 / 2.0091 / 2.0141
Recommendation : Sell 2.0050 TP 1.9987 SL 2.0096
Buy 2.0030 TP 2.0080 SL 1.9980

EUR/USD
20 September 2007 04:26:11
Closed:1.3961

Expected Range : 1.3850 - 1.4020
Support : 1.3903 / 1.3875 / 1.3832
Resistance : 1.3996 / 1.4035 / 1.4082
Recommendation : Buy 1.3950 TP 1.3996 SL 1.3900
Sell 1.3980 TP 1.3900 SL 1.4020

USD / JPY
20 September 2007 04:47:54
Closed:116.07

Expected Range : 115,66 - 117.00
Support : 115.83 / 115.41 / 114.74
Resistance : 116.55 / 117.02 / 117.61
Recommendation : Buy 115.80 TP 116.50 SL 115.50
Sell 116.70 TP 115.76 SL 117.05

USD/CHF
20 September 2007 04:50:37
Closed;1.1833

Expected Range : 1.1780 - 1894
Support : 1.1800 / 1.1773 / 1.1751
Resistance : 1.1854 / 1.1884 / 1.1940
Recommendation : Buy 1.1820 TP 1.1880 SL 1.1780
Sell 1.1880 TP 1.1780 SL 1.1900

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-19T15:30:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
19 September 2007 15:07:31
price ; 2.0131

Expected Range : 2.0224 - 2.0027
Support : 2.0108 / 2.0027 / 1.9878
Resistance : 2.0142 / 2.0224 / 2.0345
Recommendation : sell 2.0100-90, SL 2.0150, TP 2.0050

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-19T11:13:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
19 September 2007 03:45:07
Closed:2.0130

Expected Range : 2.0050 - 2.0220
Support : 2.0092 / 2.0057 / 2.0017
Resistance : 2.0145 / 2.0181 / 2.0225
Recommendation : Buy 2.0080 TP 2.0178 SL 2.0010
Sell 2.0150 TP 2.0100 SL 2.0200

EUR/USD
19 September 2007 03:35:46
Closed:1.3978

Expected Range : 1.3850 - 1.4025
Support : 1.3904 / 1.3856 / 1.3817
Resistance : 1.3992 / 1.4025 / 1.4052
Recommendation : Buy 1.3935 TP 1.3992 SL 1.3880
Sell 1.3997 TP 1.3910 SL.1.4020

USD / JPY
19 September 2007 03:38:48
Closed:116.16

Expected Range : 115.35 - 117.05
Support : 115.94 / 115.48 / 115.06
Resistance : 116.47 / 116.88 / 117.26
Recommendation : Buy 115.80 TP 116.78 SL 115.50
Sell 116.50 TP 115.67 SL 116.89

USD/CHF
19 September 2007 03:48:05
Closed:1.1816

Expected Range : 1.1758 - 1.1885
Support : 1.1794 / 1.1745 / 1.1710
Resistance : 1.1868 / 1.1918 / 1.1949
Recommendation : Sell 1.1850 TP 1.1800 SL 1.1880
Buy 1.1780 TP 1.1867 SL 1.1750

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-07T14:57:00.000+07:00

EUR/USD
7 September 2007 14:53:15
price ; 1.3664

Expected Range : 1.3719 - 1.3551
Support : 1.3635 / 1.3551 / 1.3506
Resistance : 1.3709 / 1.3719 / 1.3817
Recommendation : sell 1.3710-20, SL 1.3760, TP 1.3660
sell 1.3630, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3580

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-07T14:48:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
7 September 2007 14:35:00
price ; 2.0176

Expected Range : 2.0268 - 2.0042
Support : 2.0140 / 2.0042 / 1.9959
Resistance : 2.0212 / 2.0264 / 2.0333
Recommendation : sell 2.0135, SL 2.0185, TP 2.0085

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-07T10:34:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
7 September 2007 04:19:27
Closed:2.0236

Expected Range : 2.0150 - 2.0315
Support : 2.0202 / 2.0182 / 2.0135
Resistance : 2.0260 / 2.0330 / 2.0357
Recommendation : Buy 2.0250 TP 2.0287 SL 2.0200
Sell 2.0280 TP 2.0180 SL 2.0350

EUR/USD
7 September 2007 04:06:06
Closed:1.3688

Expected Range : 1.3625 - 1.3750
Support : 1.3645 / 1.3590 / 1.3546
Resistance : 1.3750 / 1.3793 / 1.3835
Recommendation : Buy 1.3665 TP 1.3730 SL 1.3630
Sell 1.3696 SL 1.3655 SL 1.3720

USD / JPY
7 September 2007 04:10:10
Closed:115.36

Expected Range : 114.85 - 116.35
Support : 115.09 / 114.79 / 114.50
Resistance : 115.51 / 116.11 / 116.77
Recommendation : Buy 115.10 TP 115.89 SL 114.80
Sell 115.50 TP 114.90 SL 116.00

USD/CHF
7 September 2007 04:24:19
Closed:1.2010

Expected Range : 1.1958
Support : 1.1998 / 1.1986 / 1.1958
Resistance : 1.2038 / 1.2057 / 1.2092
Recommendation : Sell 1.2050 TP 1.1987 SL 1.2096
Buy 1.1990 TP 1.2062 SL 1.1950

FOREX SIGNALS

2007-09-07T10:20:00.000+07:00

Available for Asia Market Open

GBP/USD
BUY @ 2.0254 - 2.0274
SELL @ 2.0214 - 2.0194

USD/JPY
BUY @ 115.54 - 115.74
SELL @ 115.14 - 114.94

GBP/JPY
BUY @ 233.60 - 233.80
SELL @ 233.20 - 233.00

EUR/USD
BUY @ 1.3713 - 1.3733
SELL @ 1.3673 - 1.3653

EUR/JPY
BUY @ 158.13 - 158.33
SELL @ 157.73 - 157.53

ALL TP @ 10 - 50 Pips, SL @ 40Pips

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-06T16:19:00.000+07:00

USD / JPY
6 September 2007 14:47:50 GMT +7
price ; 115.43

Belum ada perubahan pada kondisi USD/JPY. Pergerakan yang terjadi saat ini masih berada dalam konsolidasi di range 117.13 dan 113.85. Intraday bias naik dengan dukungan suport di 114.82. Sedangkan jika USD/JPY break di bawah 114.82 akan mengembalikan fokus pada harga low 113.85 dan 111.58.

Expected Range : 116.60 - 113.85
Support : 114.82 / 113.85 / 111.58
Resistance : 115.95 / 116.60 / 117.13
Recommendation : buy 115.60, SL 115.10, TP 116.10
sell 114.80, SL 115.30, TP 114.30

USD/CHF
6 September 2007 15:07:57
price ; 1.2056

Expected Range : 1.2100 - 1.1988
Support : 1.2020 / 1.1988 / 1.1960
Resistance : 1.2074 / 1.2100 / 1.2150
Recommendation : sell 1.2040, SL 1.2090, TP 1.1990
buy 1.2065, SL 1.2015, TP 1.2115

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-06T14:50:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
6 September 2007 14:11:46 GMT +7
price ; 2.0223

Expected Range : 2.0268 - 2.0041
Support : 2.0185 / 2.0042 / 1.9959
Resistance : 2.0231 / 2.0268 / 2.0395
Recommendation : sell 2.0180, SL 2.0230, TP 2.0130
sell 2.0265, SL 2.0315, TP 2.0215

EUR/USD
6 September 2007 14:35:20
price ; 1.3640

Expected Range : 1.3719 - 1.3551
Support : 1.3627 / 1.3585 / 1.3551
Resistance : 1.3671 / 1.3719 / 1.3780
Recommendation : buy 1.3660, SL 1.3610, TP 1.3710
sell 1.3700-20, SL 1.3750, TP 1.3650

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-06T09:59:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
6 September 2007 03:34:31
Closed: 2.0204

Pergerakan mata uang Sterling pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 67 (Neutral). Stochastic 85 (Down-Side). Daily trend menunjukkan Strong Bullish, dilihat dari Grafik Intraday berpeluang untuk koreksi kebawah.
Key Resistance di level 2.0230 membuka peluang bagi pair ini untuk menyentuh ke level 2.0265. Value Bolinger Band berada di kisaran level 2.0020 (Neutral) GBP berpeluang bergerak konsolidasi untuk menemukan titik Equilibrium selanjutnya.
Excpected Range: 2.0030-2.0230

Expected Range : 2.0030 - 2.0230
Support : 2.0040 / 2.0000 / 1.9960
Resistance : 2.0230 / 2.0265 / 2.0320
Recommendation : buy 2.0230, TP 2.0280, SL 2.0200
sell 2.0180, TP 2.0120, SL 2.0210

EUR/USD
6 September 2007 03:36:03
Closed: 1.3655

Expected Range : 1.3550 - 1.3680
Support : 1.3573 / 1.3500 / 1.3460
Resistance : 1.3670 / 1.3696 / 1.3718
Recommendation : buy 1.3710, TP 1.3760, SL 1.3680
sell 1.3585, TP 1.3520, SL 1.3615

USD / JPY
6 September 2007 03:37:06
Closed: 115.26

Expected Range : 114.80 - 116.30
Support : 114.50 / 114.30 / 114.00
Resistance : 116.00 / 116.70 / 117.10
Recommendation : sell 116.60, TP 117.10, SL 116.30
buy 114.90, TP 114.40, SL 115.20

USD/CHF
6 September 2007 03:37:51
Closed: 1.2037

Expected Range : 1.2010 - 1.2150
Support : 1.1990 / 1.1958 / 1.1910
Resistance : 1.2118 / 1.2150 / 1.2200
Recommendation : buy 1.2165, TP 1.2220, SL 1.2135
sell 1.2085, TP 1.2025, SL 1.2120

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-05T16:26:00.000+07:00

USD/CHF
5 September 2007 16:20:11 GMT +7
price ; 1.2123

Expected Range : 1.2191 - 1.2074
Support : 1.2093 / 1.2074 / 1.2048
Resistance1.2150 / 1.2191 / 1.2214
Recommendation : buy 1.2105-10, SL 1.2060, TP 1.2160

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-05T15:54:00.000+07:00

USD / JPY
5 September 2007 15:52:07 GMT +7
price ; 115.87

Expected Range : 116.46 - 114.65
Support : 115.32 / 114.65 / 113.85
Resistance : 116.46 / 116.74 / 117.13
Recommendation : sell 115.30, SL 115.80, TP 114.80
buy 116.05, SL 116.55, TP 115.55

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-05T15:11:00.000+07:00

EUR/USD
5 September 2007 15:10:36 GMT +7
price ; 1.3574

Expected Range : 1.3600 - 1.3500
Support : 1.3551 / 1.3520 / 1.3449
Resistance : 1.3627 / 1.3654 / 1.3719
Recommendation : sell 1.3565, SL 1.3615, TP 1.3515
sell on bounce 1.3590, SL 1.3640, TP 1.3540

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-05T14:58:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
5 September 2007 14:36:47 GMT +7
price ; 2.0072

Expected Range : 2.0125 - 1.9959
Support : 2.0042 / 1.9959 / 1.9906
Resistance : 2.0125 / 2.0161 / 2.0193
Recommendation : sell 2.0065-75, SL 2.0115, TP 2.0015
sell on bounce 2.0120-25, SL 2.0170, TP 2.0070

FOREX SIGNALS

2007-09-05T13:23:00.000+07:00

Available for Europe Market Open

GBP/USD
BUY @ 2.0151, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips
SELL @ 2.0111, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips

USD/JPY
BUY @ 116.21, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips
SELL @ 115.81, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips

GBP/JPY
BUY @ 233.69, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips
SELL @ 233.29, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips

EUR/JPY
BUY @ 157.93, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips
SELL @ 157.53, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips

EUR/USD
BUY @ 1.3613, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips
SELL @ 1.3573, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips

We suggest investors make their own decisions on stop-loss positions. We will, however assume that all trades have stop losses at 40 Pips

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-05T11:46:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
5 September 2007 03:39:38
Closed:2.0133

Expected Range : 2.0041 - 2.0231
Support : 2.0102 / 2.0062/ 2.0014
Resistance : 2.0203 / 2.0244 / 2.0295
Recommendation : sell 2.0150 TP 2.0080 Sl 2.0200
Buy 2.0090 TP 2.0180 SL 2.0050

EUR/USD
5 September 2007 03:41:59
Closed:1.3606

Expected Range : 1.3647 - 1.3680
Support : 1.3581 / 1.3502 / 1.3471
Resistance : 1.3650 / 1.3701 / 1.3755
Recommendation : Sell 1.3635 TP 1.3550 SL 1.3680
Buy 1.3580 TP 1.3659 SL 1.3540

USD / JPY
5 September 2007 03:44:01
Closed:116.34

Expected Range : 115.50 - 117.05
Support : 115.70 / 115.21 / 114.81
Resistance : 116.60 / 117.06 / 117.75
Recommendation : Sell 116.50 TP 115.80 SL 117.00
Buy 115.90 TP 116.76 SL 115.50

USD/CHF
5 September 2007 03:46:21
Closed:1.2116

Expected Range : 1.2050 - 1.2215
Support : 1.2085 / 1.2036 / 1.1984
Resistance : 1.2150 / 1.2213 / 1.2257
Recommendation : Buy 1.2110 TP 1.2189 SL 1.2080
Sell 1.2150 TP 1.2076 SL 1.2200

FOREX SIGNALS

2007-09-05T11:04:00.000+07:00

Available from 00.00 GMT to 21:00 GMT

GBP/USD
BUY @ 2.0215 - 2.0235, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips
SELL @ 2.0175 - 2.0155, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips

USD/JPY
BUY @ 116.10 - 116.30, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips
SELL @ 115.70 - 115.50, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips

GBP/JPY
BUY @ 234.26 - 234.46, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips
SELL @ 233.86 - 233.66, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips

EUR/USD
BUY @ 1.3644 - 1.3654, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips
SELL @ 1.3604 - 1.3594, TP @ 10 - 100 Pips, SL @ 40 Pips

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-09-04T11:57:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
3 September 2007 22:08:47
Closed:2.0179

Expected Range : 2.0120 - 2.0250
Support : 2.0130/ 2.0092 / 2.0050
Resistance : 2.0205 / 2.0254 / 2.0310
Recommendation : Sell 2.0180 TP 2.0120 SL 2.0230
Buy 2.0120 TP 2.0196 SL 2.0080

EUR/USD
3 September 2007 22:08:40
Closed:1.3608

Expected Range : 1.3550 - 1.3720
Support : 1.3590 / 1.3530 / 1.3486
Resistance : 1.3657 / 1.3701 / 1.3750
Recommendation : Sell 1.3650 TP 1.3580 SL 1.3684
Buy 1.3586 TP 1.3645 SL 1.3550

USD / JPY
3 September 2007 22:08:55
Closed:115.85

Expected Range : 115.45 - 116.80
Support : 115.69 / 115.20 / 114.81
Resistance : 116.31 / 116.80 / 117.57
Recommendation : Sell 116.00 TP 115.58 SL 116.50

USD/CHF
3 September 2007 22:08:21
Closed:1.2089

Expected Range : 1.2020 - 1.2215
Support : 1.2035 / 1.1982 / 1.1957
Resistance : 1.2106 / 1.2165 / 1.2215
Recommendation : Buy 1.2050 TP 1.2105 SL 1.2000
Sell 1.2096 TP 1.2040 SL 1.2035

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-28T16:21:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
28 August 2007 14:07:00
price ; 2.0040

Expected Range : 2.0191 - 1.9955
Support : 1.9978 / 1.9955 / 1.9741
Resistance : 2.0138 / 2.0191 / 2.0257
Recommendation : sell 2.0020, SL 2.0070, TP 1.9970

EUR/USD
28 August 2007 14:27:30
price ; 1.3635

Expected Range : 1.3683 - 1.3550
Support : 1.3618 / 1.3550 / 1.3449
Resistance : 1.3659 / 1.3683 / 1.3707
Recommendation : sell 1.3615, SL 1.3665, TP 1.3565

USD / JPY
28 August 2007 14:58:55
price ; 115.52

Expected Range : 117.13 - 113.99
Support : 115.33 / 113.99 / 111.58
Resistance : 116.24 / 117.13 / 117.58
Recommendation : sell 115.30, SL 115.80, TP 114.80
buy 117.15, SL 116.65, TP 117.65

USD/CHF
28 August 2007 15:18:29
price ; 1.2007

Expected Range : 1.2110 - 1.1992
Support : 1.1992 / 1.1929 / 1.1893
Resistance : 1.2046 / 1.2077 / 1.2110
Recommendation : sell 1.1990, SL 1.2040, TP 1.1940
buy 1.2050, SL 1.2000, TP 1.2100

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-28T11:52:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
28 August 2007 05:48:31
Closed:2.0122

Expected Range : 2.0050 - 2.0220
Support : 2.0084 / 2.0017 / 1.9970
Resistance : 2.0152 / 2.0217 / 2.0242
Recommendation : Sell 2.0159 TP 2.0085 SL 2.0200
Buy 2.0080 TP 2.0175 SL 2.0050

EUR/USD
28 August 2007 05:47:39
Closed:1.3644

Expected Range : 1.3576 - 1.3750
Support : 1.3609 / 1.3565 / 1.3537
Resistance : 1.3682 / 1.3708 / 1.3773
Recommendation : Sell 1.3693 TP 1.3635 SL 1.3715
Buy 1.3590 TP 1.3678 SL 1.3550

USD / JPY
28 August 2007 05:48:04
Closed:115.92

Expected Range : 115.52 - 117.15
Support : 115.89 / 115.55 / 114.81
Resistance : 116.52 / 116.74 / 117.20
Recommendation : Buy 116.50 TP 116.93 SL 116.00
Sell 116.96 TP 115.90 SL 117.20

USD/CHF
28 August 2007 05:48:55
Closed:1.2030

Expected Range : 1.1950 - 1.2105
Support : 1.1998 / 1.1981 / 1.1906
Resistance : 1.2047 / 1.2092 / 1.2110
Recommendation : Buy 1.1990 TP 1.2080 SL 1.1950
Sell 1.2050 TP 1.1986 SL 1.2100

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-24T17:20:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
24 August 2007 13:52:55
price ; 2.0005

Expected Range : 2.0155 - 1.9741
Support : 1.9935 / 1.9741 / 1.9651
Resistance : 2.0092 / 2.0155 / 2.0268
Recommendation : sell 1.9995-2.0000, SL 2.0050, TP 1.9945

EUR/USD
24 August 2007 14:09:48
price ; 1.3557

Expected Range : 1.3610 - 1.3449
Support : 1.3534 / 1.3449 / 1.3359
Resistance : 1.3595 / 1.3610 / 1.3641
Recommendation : sell 1.3530, SL 1.3580, TP 1.3480

USD / JPY
24 August 2007 14:29:44
price ; 115.77

Expected Range : 117.13 - 113.99
Support : 114.80 / 113.99 / 111.58
Resistance : 117.13 / 117.58 / 118.51
Recommendation : sell 115.50, SL 116.00, TP 115.00

USD/CHF
24 August 2007 14:45:53
price ; 1.2053

Expected Range : 1.2110 - 1.1994
Support : 1.2041 / 1.1994 / 1.1929
Resistance : 1.2110 / 1.2131 / 1.2214
Recommendation : sell 1.2040, SL 1.2090, TP 1.1990
buy 1.1990-95, SL 1.1940, TP 1.2040

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-22T13:10:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
22 August 2007 13:48:02
price ; 1.9842

Expected Range : 1.9935 - 1.9651
Support : 1.9741 / 1.9651 / 1.9544
Resistance : 1.9906 / 1.9935 / 2.0027
Recommendation : sell 1.9935, SL 1.9985, TP 1.9885
sell 1.9800, SL 1.9850, TP 1.9750

EUR/USD
22 August 2007 14:19:05
price ; 1.3488

Expected Range : 1.3546 / 1.3359
Support : 1.3449 / 1.3359 / 1.3275
Resistance : 1.3520 / 1.3546 / 1.3625
Recommendation : sell 1.3545-50, SL 1.3500, TP 1.3495
sell 1.3445, SL 1.3495, TP 1.3395

USD / JPY
22 August 2007 14:24:54

Expected Range : 115.69 - 112
Support : 113.99 / 112.77 / 111.58
Resistance : 115.69 / 116.73 / 117.15

Forex Daily Technical Report

2007-08-20T15:17:00.000+07:00

The forex market is generally quiet as the week starts. Strong rebound is seen in Asian stock markets which is triggered by Fed's surprise discount rate cut last Friday. Yen crosses continues to rebound further but dollar majors continue to stuck in tight range only. As discussed before, the massive carry trade unwinding is not considered to be completed yet. Fed's discount rate cut, and even Fed Fund rate cut, could halt the current liquidation of riskier assets but the trend will likely continue. But still, with a light economic calendar, and probably support from further rebound in the stock markets, Forex markets will likely continue to consolidate today and this week first.

Data released overnight saw UK Rightmove house prices index rose 0.6% mom, 12.8% yoy. Swiss combined PPI rose 0.1% mom, 2.8% yoy, missing expectation of 0.3% mom, 2.9% yoy. US Leading indicators will be featured in the coming US session and is expected to rebound by rising 0.3% in Jul.

EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3381; (P) 1.3463; (R1) 1.3557; More

EUR/USD engages in choppy sideway trading in tight range below 1.3545 today. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.3482 minor support holds and further rebound to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3567) could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited below 1.3642 support turned resistance. Below 1.3431 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3360 low and then a retest of 1.3328/29 cluster support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2483 has completed at 1.3851 already, with bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. The current development is reviving the case that whole up trend from 1.1639 (05 low) has completed after three waves up to 1.3851. That is, first move completed at 1.2978, subsequent consolidation completed at 1.2483 and rise from 1.3483 ended with five waves up to 1.3851. Also, 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 is just met.

Having said that, sustained break of 1.3328/29 cluster support (38.2% of 1.2483 to 1.3851 at 1.3328 and 23.6% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3851 at 1.3329) will add much credence to such case. The current fall from 1.3851 is not expected to stop here and instead it's expected to extend further to support zone between 1.2978 (medium term resistance turned support) and above mentioned 1.3006 cluster support (61.8% of 1.2483 to 1.3851 at 1.3006 and 38.2% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3851 at 1.3006) before turning into lengthier consolidation. However strong rebound from 1.3328/29 cluster support and a break above 1.3642 will dampen the above view.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9663; (P) 1.9799; (R1) 1.9947; More

Cable continues to consolidate in tight range below 1.9935 today. At this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.9737 minor support holds. Further recovery could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 2.0025). But upside should be limited below 2.0156 support turned resistance and bring another fall. Below 1.9737 will bring a test of 1.952 low and probably 1.9621 support too.

In the bigger picture, break of rising trend line support (1.9183, 1.9621) indicates that a medium term top should be in place at 2.0652 already, after failing to break through important 2.0677 target (61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677). Bearish divergence condition is seen in both daily and weekly MACD too. Initial support could be found at between 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.9524) and 1.9621 low. However, sustained trading below this level will encourage add more credence to the case that whole up rally from 1.7047 has completed too and bring deeper decline to next support zone of 1.9183 and 38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.0652 at 1.9275 first. Meanwhile, a break above 2.0156 support turned resistance will dampen the above view.

Also, note that regardless of the internal structure, the whole rally from 1.7047 represents resumption of the long term up trend from 1.3680. Even though much deeper correction could be seen, the trend will still remain intact as long as long term rising trend line support (1.3680, 1.7047, now at 1.8327) holds.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-20T15:08:00.001+07:00

GBP / USD
20 August 2007 14:03:09
price ; 1.9849

Expected Range : 1.9935 - 1.9600
Support : 1.9770 / 1.9651 / 1.9544
Resistance : 1.9935 / 2.0027 / 2.0083
Recommendation : sell 1.9765, SL 1.9815, TP 1.9715
sell 1.9930-35, SL 1.9980, TP 1.9880

EUR/USD
20 August 2007 14:23:40
price ; 1.3489

Expected Range : 1.3546 - 1.3359
Support : 1.3465 / 1.3359 / 1.3263
Resistance : 1.3546 / 1.3625 / 1.3714
Recommendation : sell 1.3460, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3410
sell 1.3540-45, SL 1.3590, TP 1.3490

USD / JPY
20 August 2007 15:00:33
price ; 115.33

Expected Range : 115.69 - 111.58
Support : 113.67 / 111.58 / 108.98
Resistance : 115.69 / 117.58 / 118.51
Recommendation : sell 115.65, SL 116.15, TP 115.15
sell 113.65, SL 114.15, TP 113.15

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-16T15:22:00.000+07:00

USD/CHF
16 August 2007 03:50:39
Closed:1.2185

Pergerakan mata uang Swiss pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 69 (Neutral). Stochastic 73 (Down-Side). Daily menunjukkan kondisi Trend Bullish, dilihat dari grafik Intraday menunjukkan Strong Bullish.
Key Resistance di level 1.2208, berhasil ditembus Swiss Franc berpeluang Buy baru sampai level 1.2259. Key Support di level 1.2150. Momentum trend turun dimulai kembali jika Swiss Franc break di Support tersebut hingga mencapai key Support berikutnya.

Expected Range : 1.2096 - 1.2250
Support : 1.2150 / 1.2096 / 1.2052
Resistance : 1.2208/ 1.2259 / 1.2306
Recommendation : buy 1.2155, TP 1.2208 SL 1.2105
Sell 1.2198 TP 1.2146 SL 1.2220

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-16T14:41:00.000+07:00

USD / JPY
16 August 2007 14:39:10
price ; 116.07

USD/JPY melanjutkan trend turunya setelah membentuk rebound ke 117.58 hingga mencapai harga low 115.69. Target turun berikutnya ada di 115.14. Sedangkan jika hari ini USD/JPY berhasil bertahan di support 115.69 maka akan membuka peluang konsolidasi menuju 116.73 dan 117.58.

Expected Range : 117.58 - 115.14
Support : 115.69 / 115.14 / 114.43
Resistance : 116.73 / 117.58 / 118.51
Recommendation : buy 116.20, SL 115.70, TP 116.70
sell 116.70-75, SL 117.20, TP 116.20

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-16T14:37:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
16 August 2007 13:44:42
price ; 1.9823

Sterling membentuk konfigurasi bearishnya setelah sempat rebound ke 1.9958 dan turun mencapai harga low di 1.9805. Pada level ini, penurunan lebih lanjut masih bisa diharapkan selama sterling bertahan di bawah resist 1.9958. Target support terdekat ada di 1.9781. Sedangkan jika hari ini sterling break di atas 1.9958 akan membawa sterling pada kondisi konsolidasi menuju 2.0027. Namun dengan melihat trend bearish yang sangat kuat, resiko untuk turun masih besar bahkan jika sterling melakukan rebound yang kuat ke 2.0156.

Expected Range : 2.0027 - 1.9781
Support : 1.9805 / 1.9781 / 1.9732
Resistance : 1.9958 / 2.0027 / 2.0071
Recommendation : buy 1.9785, SL 1.9735, TP 1.9835
sell 1.9910, SL 1.9960, TP 1.9860

EUR/USD
16 August 2007 14:20:23
price ; 1.3421

Trend turun euro dari 1.3839 terus berlanjut hingga melewati garis retrace 61.8% dari 1.3262 ke 1.3851 yang ada di 1.3487. Saat ini euro berada dalam range trading yang sempit di atas support 1.3373. Outlook untuk jangka pendek euro memasuki kondisi oversold. Break di atas 1.3436 akan membuka ruang konsolidasi ke 1.3504 dengan resiko masih turun.

Expected Range : 1.3504 - 1.3373
Support : 1.3407 / 1.3373 / 1.3307
Resistance : 1.3504 / 1.3573 / 1.3607
Recommendation : sell 1.3500-05, SL 1.3550, TP 1.3450
buy 1.3440, SL 1.3390, TP 1.3490

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-08-14T10:43:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
14 August 2007 05:33:30
Closed:2.0121

Pergerakan mata uang Sterling pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 36 (Down-Side). Stochastic 34 (Down-Side). Daily trend menunjukkan Konsolidasi, dilihat dari Grafik Intraday menunjukkan kondisi Bearish.
Key Resistance di level 2.0165 membuka peluang bagi pair ini untuk menyentuh ke level 2.0219. Key Support di level 2.0108. Jika berhasil ditembus akan membuka peluang Sell baru bagi pair ini menuju Support 2.0093, Sterling berpeluang Rebound jika secara technical pair ini gagal menembus Support kuat tersebut.

Expected Range 2.0050 - 2.0235
Support 2.0108 / 2.0093 / 2.0050
Resistance 2.0165 / 2.0219 / 2.0252
Recommendation Sell 2.0182 TP 2.0094 TP 2.0220

Buy 2.0100 SL 2.0152 TP 2.0050
EUR/USD
14 August 2007 05:32:33
Closed:1.3609

Pergerakan mata uang Euro pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 18 (Down-Side). Stochastic 9 (Down-Side). Daily trend menunjukkan Neutral, dilihat dari Grafik Intraday masih menunjukkan Sideway trading.
Key Resistance 1.3684 akan menstimulasi kenaikkan Euro jika berhasil break di atas Resistance kuat tersebut menuju level berikutnya. Key Support 1.3591 Momentum turun akan dimulai lagi jika Euro berhasil break dibawah Support kuat tsb untuk mencapai target Support dilevel 1.8550.

Expected Range 1.3550 - 1.3703
Support 1.3591 / 1.3550 / 1.3505
Resistance 1.3684 / 1.3724 / 1.3771
Recommendation Sell 1.3650 TP 1.3567 SL 1.3700
Buy 1.3580 TP 1.3646 SL 1.3550

USD / JPY
14 August 2007 05:33:03
Closed:118.24

Pergerakan mata uang Yen pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 48 (Up-Side). Stochastic 44 (Down-Side). Daily trend menunjukkan trend Bearish, dilihat dari Grafik Intraday menunjukkan Sideway trading.
Key Resistance di level 118.53 jika berhasil ditembus membuka peluang Buy baru bagi pair ini untuk menyentuh level 119.20. Key Support di 118.08, berpeluang untuk Sell baru hingga mencapai target Support berikut di level 117.84. Momentum untuk trend turun terjadi jika Support tsb berhasil ditembus.

Expected Range 117.63 - 118.96
Support 118.08 / 117.84 / 117.52
Resistance 118.53 / 118.73 / 119.20
Recommendation Sell 118.50 TP 118.02 SL 119.00
Buy 118.00 TP 118.67 SL 117.50

USD/CHF
14 August 2007 05:34:08
Closed:1.2056

Pergerakan mata uang Swiss pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 79 (Down-Side). Stochastic 88 (Down-Side). Daily trend menunjukkan Sideway trading, dilihat dari grafik Intraday menunjukkan Bullish terbatas.
Key Resistance di level 1.2099, berhasil ditembus Swiss Franc berpeluang Buy baru sampai level 1.2130. Key Support di level 1.2006. Momentum trend turun dimulai kembali jika Swiss Franc break di Support tersebut hingga mencapai key Support berikutnya.

Expected Range 1.1997 - 1.2150
Support 1.2006 / 1.1991 / 1.1959
Resistance 1.2099 / 1.2130 / 1.2193
Recommendation Buy 1.2020 TP 1.2098 SL 1.1996
Sell 1.2087 TP 1.2008 SL 1.2130

OUR RECCOMENDATION

2007-08-09T14:23:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
9 August 2007 14:17:03
Price ; 2.0364

GBP/USD yang sempat turun ke 2.0156 diikuti dengan rebound yang kuat ke 2.0397 dan didukung dengan kondisi bullish divergen pada grafik hourly di indikator MACD dan RSI. Hal ini membuat outlook GBP/USD menjadi netral dengan kecenderungan konsolidasi di dalam range 2.0461 dan 2.0156. Volatilitas saat ini masih rendah. Break di bawah 2.0278 akan membawa fokus kembali pada harga low 2.0156. Sedangkan peluang rebound akan terbatas pada resist 2.0461.

Expected Range : 2.0461 - 2.0156
Support : 2.0278 / 2.0156 / 2.0056
Resistance : 2.0397 / 2.0461 / 2.0561
Recommendation : sell 2.0275, SL 2.0325, TP 2.0225
buy 2.0400, SL 2.0350, TP 2.0450

EUR/USD
9 August 2007 14:31:06
Price ; 1.3780

Penurunan euro yang terjadi ke level 1.3721 diikuti dengan rebound yang kuat hingga 1.3825. Swing yang terjadi kemarin seakan ingin mencoba menembus kembali harga high 1.3851, namun euro akan berhadapan dengan resist kuat 1.3839. Outlook masih bias untuk konsolidasi di dalam range 1.3839 dan 1.3725 dengan kecenderungan turun kembali selama resist 1.3839 mampu bertahan.

Expected Range : 1.3839 - 1.3683
Support : 1.3725 / 1.3683 / 1.3637
Resistance : 1.3817 / 1.3839 / 1.3851
Recommendation : sell on rally 1.3770-80, SL 1.3820, TP 1.2720

USD / JPY
9 August 2007 14:40:18
Price ; 119.04

Sepeti yang disampaikan kemarin, meskipun USD/JPY berhasil melanjutkan reboundnya dari harga low 117.18, namun USD/JPY masih beresiko untuk turun kembali di kisaran resist 119.80. Break di bawah 118.70 akan membawa USD/JPY kembali fokus pada harga low 117.18. Sebaliknya USD/JPY akan melakukan konsolidasi di dalam range 119.80 dan 117.18.

Expected Range : 119.80 - 117.18
Support : 118.70 / 117.97 / 117.18
Resistance : 119.82 / 120.73 / 120.95
Recommendation : sell on rally 119.00-10, SL 119.50, TP 118.50

USD/CHF
9 August 2007 14:59:17
Price ; 1.1943

USD/CHF masih konsolidasi di atas harga low 1.1815 dan resist 1.1994. Kami melihat proses konsolidasi ini masih akan berlanjut hingga akhir minggu ini. USD/CHF belum memasuki kondisi oversold, dan momentum untuk turun masih terbuka selama resist 1.1994 mampu bertahan. Break di bawah 1.1907 akan membawa fokus kembali pada harga low 1.1815.

Expected Range : 1.2026 - 1.1815
Support : 1.1907 / 1.1815 / 1.1750
Resistance : 1.1994 / 1.2026 / 1.2083
Recommendation : sell 1.1905, SL 1.2055, TP 1.1855
buy 1.1995, SL 1.1945, TP 1.2045

OUR RECCOMENDATION

2007-08-08T15:23:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
8 August 2007 13:46:20
price ; 2.0163

Expected Range : 2.0315 - 2.0091
Support : 2.0135 / 2.0096 / 2.0005
Resistance : 2.0256 / 2.0315 / 2.0461
Recommendation : sell 2.0160-65, SL 2.0210, TP 2.0110

EUR/USD
8 August 2007 14:02:51
Price ; 1.3727

Expected Range : 1.3772 - 1.3680
Support : 1.3700 / 1.3680 / 1.3635
Resistance : 1.3772 / 1.3816 / 1.3839
Recommendation : sell 1.3725-30, Sl 1.3775, TP 1.3675

USD / JPY
8 August 2007 14:16:10
Price ; 119.05

Expected Range : 119.80 - 117.97
Support : 118.73 / 117.97 / 117.18
Resistance : 119.36 / 119.80 / 120.53
Recommendation : buy 119.40, SL 118.90, TP 119.90
sell 118.70, SL 119.20, TP 118.20

USD/CHF
8 August 2007 14:40:39
price ; 1.1992

Expected Range : 1.2083 - 1.1907
Support : 1.1952 / 1.1907 / 1.1815
Resistance : 1.2030 / 1.2083 / 1.2132
Recommendation : buy 1.1985-95, SL 1.1935, TP 1.2035

OUR RECCOMENDATION

2007-08-07T13:06:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
7 August 2007 13:49:20
Price ; 2.0307

Outlook sterling berada dalam konsolidasi setelah pergerakan trend turun yang terakhir. Saat ini sterling bergerak tanpa trend dan kondisi swing di bawah exponential moving averages (EMA 21 and 34). Volatilitas berkurang. Support terdekat ada di 2.0278. Jika hari ini sterling break di bawah 2.0278 maka fokus akan kembali pada harga low 2.0181. Sedangkan di atas 2.0335, outlook menjadi netral.

Expected Range : 2.0461 - 2.0202
Support : 2.0278 / 2.0181 / 2.0157
Resistance : 2.0377 / 2.0461 / 2.0561
Recommendation : sell 2.0275, SL 2.0325, TP 2.0225
buy 2.0340, SL 2.0290, TP 2.0390

EUR/USD
7 August 2007 14:09:21
Price ; 1.3794

Euro berada dalam sideway trade yang ketat setelah pergerakan bullish terakhir. Saat ini euro masih bergerak tanpa trend dan kondisi swings di sekitar exponential moving averages (EMA 21 dan 34). Volatilitas harga masih rendah. Resist kuat ada di 1.3839. Untuk jangka pendek harga masih akan melanjutkan konsolidasinya dikisaran 1.3839 dan 1.3780. Jika euro berhasil break di bawah 1.3780 maka fokus target terletak di support 1.3727.

Expected Range : 1.3839 - 1.3727
Support : 1.3780 / 1.3727 / 1.3683
Resistance : 1.3816 / 1.3839 / 1.3890
Recommendation : sell 1.3775, SL 1.3825, TP 1.3725
sell 1.3835-40, SL 1.3885, TP 1.3785

USD / JPY
7 August 2007 14:23:57
Price ; 118.71

USD/JPY berada dalam kondisi konsolidasi setelah pergerakan bearish yang terakhir. Range trading hari ini ada dikisaran 119.80 dan 118.15. Volatilitas harga masih rendah. Support terdekat ada di 118.15. Break di atas 119.36 akan membuka peluang rebound ke 119.80 dengan resiko masih turun di kisaran resist tersebut.

Expected Range : 119.80 - 118.15
Support : 118.52 / 118.15 / 117.18
Resistance : 119.36 / 120.29 / 120.73
Recommendation : sell 118.50, SL 119.00, TP 118.00
sell 119.80, SL 120.30, TP 119.30

USD/CHF
7 August 2007 14:41:56
Price ; 1.1901

USD/CHF berada dalam kondisi konsolidasi setelah pergerakan turun yang terakhir ke 1.1815. Saat ini volatilitas masih rendah. Konfigurasi masih bearish, meskipun USD/CHF mengalami rebound akan tertahan di resist 1.1981. Trend bearish sepertinya masih akan menunggu momentum. Target turun di harapkan bisa mencapai 1.1700.

Expected Range : 1.1981 - 1.1815
Support : 1.1893 / 1.1815 / 1.1760
Resistance : 1.1925 / 1.1981 / 1.2050
Recommendation : sell 1.1890, SL 1.1940, TP 1.1840
buy 1.1815-20, SL 1.1765, TP 1.1865

UK Service Activity Hits 11-Month Low

2007-08-03T16:38:00.001+07:00

UK Purchasing Managers Index - Services (JUL)

Actual: 57.0
Expected: 57.5
Previous: 57.7

After unexpected improvements in manufacturing and construction activity, the service sector report crossed the wires below the market's concensus. Economists had projected a modest cooling for the July purchasing managers index from 57.7 to 57.5. However, a drop in nearly all of the indicator's components pushed the headline number down to 57.0, matching its lowest print since August. The breakdown provided a disappointing checklist. Employment and outstanding business marked a three months low, prices received hit cooled to its lowest levels in at least six months, while the important new business sub-gauge stepped own from June's high. The only notable improvement came from the expectations gauge which climbed for the second consecutive month to 74.5 despite the level of interest rates, the currency and the threat that recent floods may weigh on consumer sentiment and therefore spending.

In the minutes after the indicator was absorbed, GBPUSD was littled moved in its 10 point range above 2.0350 as traders wait for US event risk due later in the morning.

European Retail Sales Increase For First Time In 3 Months

2007-08-03T16:36:00.000+07:00

Euro Zone Retail Sales (JUN)
(MoM) (YoY)
Actual: 0.4% 0.9%
Expected: 0.8% 1.4%
Previous: -0.7% (-R) 0.1% (-R)

Like the German figure before it, the Euro Zone's June retail sales report missed the market's projected increase. According to Eurostat's numbers, the total value of reciepts grew 0.4 percent over the month and 0.9 percent from the same period a year ago. Economists forecast a 0.8 percent increase for June, and a 1.4 percent pick up through the year. Adding to the disappointment, the previous month's data was revised lower on both time frames. On the other hand, sentiment was supported by the fact that June's improvement in sales was the first positive number in three months.

In the minutes after the release, EURUSD was barely moved around its 1.37 epicenter.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.

OUR RECCOMENDATION

2007-08-03T16:02:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
3 August 2007 14:36:04
Price ; 2.0360

Sterling masih tetap berada dalam range trading stabilnya di 2.0376 dan 2.0181. Outlook masih bias untuk turun selama resist 2.0376 mampu menahannya. Diperlukan break di bawah 2.0181 untuk dimulainya kembali trend turun sterling menuju target retrace 50% dari 1.9622 ke 2.0652 yang ada di 2.0137. Break di atas 2.0376 akan membuka ruang bagi sterling untuk melanjutkan reboundnya ke resist 2.0424.

Expected Range : 2.0424 - 2.0181
Support : 2.0268 / 2.0181 / 2.0137
Resistance : 2.0377 / 2.0424 / 2.0561
Recommendation : sell 2.0345, SL 2.0495, TP 2.0395
buy 2.0380, SL 2.0330, TP 2.0430

EUR/USD
3 August 2007 14:36:13
Price : 1.3701

Euro masih melanjutkan konsolidasinya di dalam range stabilnya 1.3727 dan 1.3611. Untuk jangka pendek outlook masih bias untuk turun selama resist 1.3771 mampu bertahan. Euro berpeluang untuk menguji harga low 1.3611 jika hari ini berhasil break di bawah support 1.3687.

Expected Range : 1.3771 - 1.3611
Support : 1.3687 / 1.3650 / 1.3611
Resistance : 1.3727 / 1.3741 / 1.3777
Recommendation : sell 1.3685, SL 1.3735, TP 1.3635
buy 1.3715, SL 1.3665, TP 1.3765

USD / JPY
3 August 2007 14:52:47
Price ; 119.09

Meskipun USD/JPY mengalami rebound namun masih tetap berada di dalam range konsolidasinya di 119.48 dan 117.59. Dengan kondisi divergen bearish yang terlihat pada grafik hourly, USD/JPY masih berpeluang untuk melanjutkan reboundnya jika berhasil break di atas 119.48 untuk mencapai target resist 119.80. Sedangkan jika hari ini USD/JPY kembali berada di bawah 118.32 maka fokus akan tertuju pada level low 117.59.

Expected Range : 119.80 - 118.32
Support : 118.89 / 118.32 / 117.59
Resistance : 119.48 / 119.80 / 120.73
Recommendation : buy 119.50, SL 119.00, TP 120.00
sell 118.85, SL 119.35, TP 118.35

USD/CHF
3 August 2007 15:27:40
Price ; 1.2062

Meskipun sempat menguat, USD/CHF kembali turun dan tetap berada di dalam range konsolidasinya di 1.2164 dan 1.1979. Outlook masih terlihat netral selama USD/CHF masih berada di dalam range stabil tersebut.

Expected Range : 1.2132 - 1.1979
Support : 1.2026 / 1.1979 / 1.1961
Resistance : 1.2083 / 1.2132 / 1.2164
Recommendation :
sell 1.2025, SL 1.2075, TP 1.1975
buy 1.2085, SL 1.2035, TP 1.2132

Forex Market Issues and Risks

2007-08-03T13:29:00.000+07:00

ECB and BoE rates decisions today, both seen unchanged

News and Events:

The dollar rose against the yen for a second straight day on Thursday as traders took advantage of a rebound in US blue-chip stocks to adjust positions before Friday's closely-watched payrolls report.

The Euro and Sterling traded higher even as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England left rates on hold at 4 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively.

Traders said the respite from the recent sharp swings in financial markets prompted a return to selling low-yielding currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc to buy higher-yielding but riskier assets.

Traders said 'The trade this week has been simple: if stocks rise, you short the yen, if they fall, you buy back yen; but the payrolls report today may break this pattern, making the Forex Market less dependent on stocks to asses risk.'

Yesterday, the Dollar was up 0.24% against the yen at 119.16, recovering from four-month 117.61 lows the previous day. The Euro also rose 0.54% to 163.31.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said after the bank's policy meeting that 'strong vigilance' was needed to stem inflation risks, signaling a possible September rate hike. The ECB's Trichet weighed in on the recent volatility in financial markets. He said the central bank was closely monitoring shifts in sentiment and the price movements that were part of a 'normalization of pricing risk.' Analysts said, his remarks on 'normalization of risk' implies that the current volatility will not affect the ECB's tightening campaign.

The EurUsd hit session highs yesterday around 1.3708 after Bundesbank President Axel Weber said fears of a German banking crisis were unfounded following problems at IKB. In a statement, Weber said problems at IKB, which specializes in lending to small- and mid-sized companies, were of an 'institution-specific nature.' IKB has become Europe's most high-profile casualty so far of the crisis in the US sub-prime mortgage market. Its problems have fueled concerns that other German banks might be in trouble. 'Risk aversion is going to remain high. Because people have lost a lot of money and they're not going to put a lot of risk back into the market,' said analyst.

UsdChf was little changed at 1.2034 after having touched 1.2085 high.

Last week's sell-off in the stock market and a slide in corporate bond prices over the past few weeks caused hefty losses for some banks and hedge funds. For currency traders, this has sparked a reversal of risky carry trades where cheap borrowing in the yen is used to fund purchases of high-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar. The unwinding of carry trades has come in fits and starts, reflecting the market's heightened nervousness about the extent of problems in the U.S. housing and credit sectors.

Yesterday, the high-yielding New Zealand dollar was up 0.69% at 91.48 against the Yen, while the Australian dollar was up 0.84% at 102.23 against the Yen.

Today Key Issues:

* 08.00 EUR July Euro zone PMI Services final 58.1 vs 58.1
* 08.00 EUR July Euro zone PMI Composite final 57.3 vs 57.3
* 09.00 EUR June Euro Retail Sales +0.5% vs -0.5%
* 12.30 US July Non-Farm Payrolls 160k vs 132k
* 12.30 US July Unemployment Rate 4.5% vs 4.5%
* 14.00 US July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 59 vs 60.7

The Risk Today:

EurUsd consolidated in recent markets low-high range 1.3610 - 1.3728. The break below 1.3750 from last week marks the initial resistance and put 1.3659 former resistances in sight. Initial minor support holds 1.3750 former support. Renewed uptrend may refocus the way upward 1.3925 and 1.3986 resistances.

GbpUsd also consolidated after touching 2.0182 Monday low. Sterling was little up yesterday at 2.0356 in recent trading range 2.0204 - 2.0378. Renewed weakness below 2.0200 will put 2.0100 support (former trend resistance) in sight. A break there will open the door back down to 2.0000 pivot point. Initial resistance holds 2.0378 Tuesday high before 2.0494 Friday high.

UsdJpy touched a new 3-months low at 117.61 on Wednesday before rebounding up to 119.38 yesterday. The risk of further downtrend remains; a clear break of 118.50 pivot point may accelerate the slide to 116.58. Minor resistance holds 120.78 pivot hit last week. Initial resistance holds 119.50 Tuesday high.

UsdChf tested 1.1980 low on Wednesday before rebounding up to 1.2085 yesterday. Pressure remains below 1.2082 (23.6% retracement of 1.2470 - 1.1962 decline). A break there will open the door for further advance toward 1.2217 (50% retracement). But renewed down trend, may shift on 1.1881 early December low and 1.1739 April 2005 trend supports.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.3986 S 2.0706 T 124.15 T 1.2217 S
1.3925 S 2.0683 S 120.78 P 1.2157 S
1.3750 M 2.0378 M 119.50 M 1.2082 M
1.3710 2.0365 119.15 1.2030
1.3659 S 2.0182 M 118.50 P 1.1962 S
1.3610 M 2.0100 S 118.01 M 1.1881 K
1.3550 P 2.0000 P 116.58 T 1.1739 T
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

OUR RECCOMENDATION

2007-08-03T13:18:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
3 August 2007 05:15:08
Closed:2.0368

Pergerakan mata uang Sterling pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 71 (Neutral). Stochastic 42 (Down-Oversold). Daily trend menunjukkan Strong Bearish dilihat dari Grafik Intraday menunjukkan Bullish terbatas.
Key Resistance di level 2.0403 membuka peluang bagi pair ini untuk menyentuh ke level 2.0453. Key Support di level 2.0342. Jika berhasil ditembus akan membuka peluang Sell baru bagi pair ini menuju Support 2.0304, Sterling berpeluang Rebound jika secara technical pair ini gagal menembus Support kuat tersebut.

Expected Range : 2.0275 - 2.0403
Support : 2.0342/ 2.0304 / 2.0287
Resistance : 2.0403 / 2.0453 / 2.0491
Recommendation : Sell 2.0386 TP 2.0320 SL 2.0430

EUR/USD
3 August 2007 05:16:14
Closed:1.3700

Pergerakan mata uang Euro pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 74(Neutral). Stochastic 93 (Oversold). Daily menunjukkan Neutral, dilihat dari Grafik Intraday masih menunjukkan sideway trading.
Key Resistence 1.3750 akan mulai lagi jika Euro berhasil break di atas resistence kuat tersebut menuju level berikutnya. key Support 1.3651 namun jika gagal Euro berpeluang untuk Rebound.

Expected Range : 1.3630 - 1.3746
Support : 1.3651 / 1.3628 / 1.3586
Resistance : 1.3716 / 1.3746 / 1.3771
Recommendation : Sell 1.3700 TP 1.3650 SL 1.3750
Buy 1.3680 TP 1.3710 SL 1.3640

USD / JPY
3 August 2007 05:15:43
Closed:119.25

Pergerakan mata uang Yen pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 56 (Down-Side). Stochastic 6 (Up-Side). Daily trend menunjukkan Bullish terbatas, dilihat dari Grafik Intraday menunjukkan strong Bearish.
Key Resistance di level 119.58 jika berhasil ditembus membuka peluang Buy baru bagi pair ini untuk menyentuh level 119.92. Key Support di 118.80, berpeluang untuk Sell baru hingga mencapai target Support berikut di level 118.41 momentum untuk trend turun terjadi jika Support tsb berhasil ditembus.

Expected Range : 118.30 - 120.5
Support : 118.80 / 118.41 / 117.96
Resistance : 119.50 / 119.92 / 120.50
Recommendation : Sell 119.58 TP 118.67 SL 120.00
Buy 118.80 TP 119.87 SL 118.50

USD/CHF
3 August 2007 05:14:41
Closed:1.2039

Pergerakan mata uang Swiss pada Chart Hourly sampai dengan penutupan market US berada pada RSI 45 (Neutral). Stochastic 27 (Up-Side). Daily trend menunjukkan Neutral, dilihat dari grafik Intraday menunjukkan Konsolidasi dalam range stabil.
Key Resistance di level 1.2068, berhasil ditembus Swiss Franc berpeluang Buy baru sampai level 1.2096. Key Support di level 1.2009. Momentum trend turun dimulai kembali jika swiss Franc break disupport tersebut untuk menuju support berikutnya.

Expected Range : 1.1970 - 1.2096
Support : 1.2009 / 1.1984 / 1.1972
Resistance : 1.2068 / 1.2096 / 1.2132
Recommendation : Buy 1.2050 TP 1.2089 SL 1.2000
Sell 1.2082 TP 1.2006 SL 1.2130

European Market Update

2007-08-02T16:38:00.000+07:00

UK Halifax House Prices Unexpectedly Rise in July

The European indices are currently trading positive territory following a series of strong earnings reports ahead of the open.

European government bonds are currently trading slightly lower in the session following a reversal in Treasuries after US equities made a comeback late yesterday. Similarly, over in the UK, gilts are trading slightly lower as well.

In the UK overnight, Halifax house prices for the month of July, which were expected to decline from June's readings, rose to 0.7% m/m and 11.2% y/y, the highest y/y reading since February of 2005. Despite the unexpected rise, Halifax noted that the data confirmed that growth in house prices is slowing down as the readings continue to rise at a decreasing pace. Despite this, Halifax revised its 2007 price inflation forecast to 6% from the previous forecast of 4%.

The net change in Spanish unemployment for the month of July was 4.5K, below estimates of 6.8K. This is the first time that registered unemployment rose in six months. The number of those claiming unemployment benefits rose by approximately 4,469 or 0.2% according to the Labor Ministry. Do recall, however, that on July 27, the release of second-quarter unemployment came in at 7.95%, the lowest in 29 years.

Swedish preliminary second-quarter GDP rose by more than expected to 1.0% m/m and 3.6% y/y, from first-quarter readings of 0.6% q/q and 3.0% y/y respectively.

The Swiss SVME PMI for the month of July, which was expected to decline, rose to 63.0 from 62.8 in June. The reading was the highest in five months as companies increased output in an attempt to keep pace with demand.

Construction PMI in the UK, which was expected to decline, rose to 61.8 in July from 60.1 in June.

Euro-Zone producer prices for the month of June, which were expected to remain unchanged m/m at 0.3%, declined to 0.1%m/m and remained unchanged y/y at 2.3%. The m/m followed weak intermediate and energy goods prices.

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

OUR RECCOMENDATION

2007-08-02T16:29:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
2 August 2007 13:46:32
Price ; 2.0311

Sterling masih berada dalam range stabilnya dari 2.0376 dan 2.0181. Outlook masih bias untuk turun selama resist 2.0376 mampu menahannya. Momentum trend turun dimulai lagi jika sterling break di bawah low 2.0181 untuk menuju target retrace 50% dari 1.9622 ke 2.0652 yang ada di 2.0137.Sedangkan peluang terjadinya rebound masih terbatas di 2.0424 dengan resiko turun lagi.

Expected Range : 2.0424 - 2.0137
Support : 2.0268 / 2.0181 / 2.0137
Resistance : 2.0376 / 2.0424 / 2.0563
Recommendation : sell 2.0265, SL 2.0315, TP 2.0215
sell 2.0420-25, SL 2.0470, TP 2.0370

EUR/USD
2 August 2007 14:03:05
Price ; 1.3672

Sama dengan sterling, euro masih berada dalam range stabilnya dari 1.3727 dan 1.3611. Outlook saat ini masih netral dengan kecenderungan melanjutkan konsolidasinya di dalam range tersebut. Diperlukan break di atas resist 1.3727 untuk menandakan koreksi dari penurunan 1.3851 telah selesai. Jika tidak maka outlook masih beresiko untuk turun. Trend turun akan dimulai kembali jika euro break di bawah 1.3611 untuk mencapai target zona support 1.3558.

Expected Range : 1.3737 - 1.3558
Support : 1.3637 / 1.3611 / 1.3558
Resistance : 1.3709 / 1.3727 / 1.3771
Recommendation : sell 1.3650, SL 1.3700, TP 1.3600

USD / JPY
2 August 2007 14:27:37
Price ; 118.72

Meskipun sempat turun ke 117.59, USD/JPY tidak mampu bertahan lama di bawah support 118.01 sehingga kembali rebound pada sesi pasar Amerika tadi malam ke 119.14. Intraday masih bias untuk turun selama tertahan di bawah resist 119.48. Sedangkan jika break di atas 119.48 akan mengkonfirmasi telah terbentuknya formasi bottom untuk jangka pendek di 117.59.

Expected Range : 120.48 - 117.59
Support : 118.32 / 117.59 / 117.28
Resistance : 119.14 / 119.48 / 120.73
Recommendation : sell 119.45, SL 119.95, TP 118.95

USD/CHF
2 August 2007 14:55:22
Price ; 1.2032

Selama resist minor 1.2064 masih bertahan, peluang turun USD/CHF dari 1.2164 masih dalam progres untuk menguji harga low 1.1961. Diperlukan break di bawah 1.1961 untuk menandakan dimulainya kembali trend turun dari 1.2467. Sebaliknya, konsolidasi di dalam range stabil ini masih akan berlanjut.

Expected Range : 1.2132 - 1.1961
Support : 1.2023 / 1.1979 / 1.1961
Resistance : 1.2050 / 1.2064 / 1.2132
Recommendation : buy 1.2050, SL 1.2000, TP 1.2100
sell 1.2020, SL 1.2070, TP 1.1970

OUR RECCOMENDATION

2007-08-01T08:32:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
1 August 2007 03:57:31
price ; 2.0311

Expected Range : 2.0480 - 2.0253
Support : 2.0262 / 2.0222 / 2.0174
Resistance : 2.0370 / 2.0420 / 2.0487
Recommendation : buy 2.0288, SL 2.0189, TP 2.0340
sell 2.0470-25, SL 2.0520, TP 2.0357

EUR/USD
1 August 2007 03:57:22
Price ; 1.3679

Expected Range : 1.3770 - 1.3665
Support : 1.3670/ 1.3640 / 1.3606
Resistance : 1.3740 / 1.3770 / 1.3823
Recommendation : sell 1.3740, SL 1.3790, TP 1.3650

USD / JPY
1 August 2007 04:16:23
Price ; 118.61

Expected Range : 118.20 - 119.74
Support : 118.44 / 118.17 / 117.90
Resistance : 119.51 / 119.78 / 120.05
Recommendation : buy 118.70, SL 118.18, TP 119.35
sell 119.05, SL 119.62, TP 118.66

USD/CHF
1 August 2007 03:55:43
price ; 1.2016

Expected Range : 1.1978 - 1.2128
Support : 1.1996 / 1.1974 / 1.1953
Resistance : 1.2082 / 1.2104 / 1.2125
Recommendation : buy 1.2060, SL 1.2010, TP 1.2110

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-31T15:06:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
31 July 2007 13:09:50

Expected Range : 22900 - 23100
Support : 22900 / 22850 / 22800
Resistance : 23100 / 23150 / 23200
Recommendation : Sell 23080
TP 22980, SL 23130

GBP / USD
31 July 2007 14:19:00
price ; 2.0290

Expected Range : 2.0424 - 2.0181
Support : 2.0224 / 2.0181 / 2.0130
Resistance : 2.0295 / 2.0344 / 2.0424
Recommendation : buy 2.0345, SL 2.0295, TP 2.0395
sell 2.0420-25, SL 2.0470, TP 2.0370

EUR/USD
31 July 2007 14:32:24
Price ; 1.3703

Expected Range : 1.3727 - 1.3611
Support : 1.3667 / 1.3611 / 1.3576
Resistance : 1.3727 / 1.3771 / 1.3824
Recommendation :
sell 1.3690, SL 1.3740, TP 1.3640

USD / JPY
31 July 2007 14:42:00
Price ; 118.94

Expected Range : 119.79 - 117.87
Support : 118.01 / 117.87 / 117.07
Resistance : 119.28 / 119.79 / 120.73
Recommendation : buy 119.30, SL 118.80, TP 119.80
sell 118.75, SL 118.25, TP 119.25

USD/CHF
31 July 2007 15:02:56
price ; 1.2039

Expected Range : 1.2099 - 1.1981
Support : 1.2006 / 1.1981 / 1.1961
Resistance : 1.2099 / 1.2132 / 1.2164
Recommendation : buy 1.2060, SL 1.2010, TP 1.2110

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports |

2007-07-31T10:07:00.000+07:00

FX Awaits Barrage of Data

At 1:00 AM Japan June Housing Starts y/y (exp -3.2%, prev -10.7%)
At 2:00 AM Germany June Retail Sales m/m (exp 1.0%, prev -1.8%)
Germany June Retail Sales y/y (exp -1.7%, prev -3.7%)
At 4:00 AM Germany July Unemployment Rate (exp 9.0%, prev 9.1%)
At 5:00 AM Eurozone July Business Climate (exp 1.46, prev 1.54)
Eurozone July HICP flash y/y (exp 1.9%, prev 1.9%)
Eurozone June Unemployment Rate (exp 7.0%, prev 7.0%)
At 5:30 AM UK July GfK Survey (exp -4.0, prev -3.0)
At 8:30 AM US June core PCE m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
US June core PCE y/y (exp n/f, prev 1.9%)
US June PCE index m/m (exp n/f, prev 0.5%)
US June PCE index y/y (exp n/f, prev 2.3%)
US June Consumption (exp 0.2%, prev 0.5%)
US June Personal Income (exp 0.5%, prev 0.4%)
US Q2 Employment Cost Index (exp 0.9%, prev 0.8%)
Canada May GDP m/m (exp 0.4%, prev 0.3%)
At 9:45 AM US July Chicago PMI (exp 58.0, prev 60.2)
At 10:00 AM US July Consumer Confidence (exp 105.0, prev 103.9)

The dollar continued to give back gains in early Tuesday trading, slipping through 1.37 against the euro and falling beneath 2.03 versus the sterling. The coming session will see a barrage of economic reports for traders to assess the strength of the economies in the Eurozone, US and Canada. The greenback's rebound from last week may be coming to an end, as traders are poised to resume the currency's downtrend against the majors.

US economic reports due out include the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE index, June consumption, personal income, Q2 employment cost index, July Chicago PMI and July consumer confidence. The monthly core PCE figure is seen edging up slightly to 0.2% from 0.1%. Consumption for June is forecasted to slip to 0.2%, down from 0.5%, while personal income is expected to edge up slightly to 0.5% versus 0.4%. The Chicago PMI report is seen falling to 58.0, down from June at 60.2. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence is expected to improve to 105.0, down from 103.9.

Yen Falls on Mixed Data

The yen relinquished some of its recent gains against the majors, falling to 119 versus the dollar and 163.64 against the euro. Japan's June unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in 9-years at 3.7% while the jobs-to-applicants ratio improved to 1.07, from 1.06. However, the June all-households spending were up by just 0.1%, falling short of estimates for a 0.7% annualized improvement and the monthly figure fell by 0.2%. The wage earner household spending fell by 0.4%. Japan's manufacturing PMI fell beneath the key 50-level for the first time in 4-years, dipping into the territory of contraction at 49.0. The PMI output index also fell to 48.1 while output prices climbed to its highest reading ever at 52.6.

Euro Firms Ahead of Data

The euro recovered ahead of several key reports due out from the Eurozone later in the session. Germany's retail sales are seen improving in June, rising on a monthly basis to 1.0% and reversing the previous month's 1.8% decline and improving to a 1.8% decline versus a 3.7% drop a year earlier. The unemployment rate in Germany is also forecasted to fall to 9.0% from 9.1% in June.

Eurozone reports will also see unemployment for July, seen unchanged at 7.0%. The HICP flash is forecasted to hold steady at 1.9%, while the business climate is seen slipping to 1.46 from 1.54.

We continue to see further euro strength, with the recent drop viewed as a retracement prior to a resumption of its uptrend toward the 1.40-mark against the dollar

MG Financial Group

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

MG Financial Group, or any of its related companies, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content provided is put forward in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no implicit guarantees of accuracy or timeliness.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-31T09:15:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
31 July 2007 06:42:42

Expected Range : 17250 - 17425
Support : 17250 / 17200 / 17150
Resistance : 17425 / 17470 / 17535
Recommendation : Buy 17280
TP 17380, SL 17230

KOSPI
31 July 2007 06:46:56

Expected Range : 241.90 - 246.70
Support : 241.90 / 241.20 / 240.50
Resistance : 246.70 / 247.50 / 248.15
Recommendation : Buy 243.00
TP 244.00 / SL 242.50

HANGSENG
31 July 2007 08:43:46

Expected Range : 22700 - 22900
Support : 22700 / 22650 / 22600
Resistance : 22900 / 22950 / 23000
Recommendation : Sell 22880
TP 22780, SL 22930

GBP / USD
31 July 2007 04:18:43
Closed:2.0243

Expected Range : 2.0158 - 2.0350
Support : 2.0203 / 2.0180 / 2.0141
Resistance : 2.0287 / 2.0303 / 2.0360
Recommendation : Sell 2.0287 TP 2.0210 SL 2.0320

EUR/USD
31 July 2007 04:09:20
Closed:1.3691

Expected Range : 1.3620 - 1.3750
Support : 1.3665/ 1.3631 / 1.3592
Resistance : 1.3735 / 1.3771/ 1.3813
Recommendation : Sell 1.3720 TP 1.3650 SL 1.3750

USD / JPY
31 July 2007 04:19:04
Closed:119.09

Expected Range : 118.50 - 119.80
Support : 118.72 / 118.34 / 117.94
Resistance : 119.50 / 119.87/ 120.37
Recommendation : Buy 118.80 TP 119.50 SL 118.50
Sell 119.47 TP 118.75 SL 119.87

USD/CHF
31 July 2007 04:23:57
Closed:1.2038

Expected Range : 1.1996 - 1.2095
Support : 1.2002 / 1.1982 / 1.1958
Resistance : 1.2073 / 1.2098 / 1.2132
Recommendation : Buy 1.2050 TP 1.2096 SL 1.2000
Sell 1.2080 TP 1.2002 SL 1.2120

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-30T16:02:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
30 July 2007 14:07:54
Price ; 2.0251

Expected Range : 2.0344 - 2.0120
Support : 2.0181 / 2.0120 / 2.0056
Resistance : 2.0260 / 2.0344 / 2.0424
Recommendation : sell 2.0340-45, SL 2.0390, TP 2.0290
sell 2.0180, SL 2.0230, TP 2.0130

EUR/USD
30 July 2007 14:26:04
Price ; 1.3647

Expected Range : 1.3691 - 1.3576
Support : 1.3611 / 1.3576 / 1.3478
Resistance : 1.3667 / 1.3691 / 1.3771
Recommendation : sell 1.3690, SL 1.3740, TP 1.3640
sell 1.3610, SL 1.3660, TP 1.3560

USD / JPY
30 July 2007 14:51:44
Price ; 118.75

Expected Range : 119.79 - 117.87
Support : 118.01 / 117.87 / 117.07
Resistance : 119.28 / 119.79 / 120.73
Recommendation : sell 119.75-80, SL 120.25, TP 119.25

USD/CHF
30 July 2007 15:14:38
Price ; 1.2062

Expected Range : 1.2132 - 1.2011
Support : 1.2021 / 1.1981 / 1.1961
Resistance : 1.2099 / 1.2132 / 1.2164
Recommendation : buy 1.2080, SL 1.2030, TP 1.2130

Forex Market Summary

2007-07-30T09:32:00.000+07:00

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued its recent rallies on the back of other majors. The U.S. dollar was also aided by a technical rebound and a tumble in stick prices. In data news, the GDP for the second quarter was released at a better figure than expectations, with a reading of 3.4% (Forecast: 3.2%), the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2006. Core PCE suggested inflation was moderating, gaining at a surprisingly low 1.4 percent annual rate, within the presumed comfort range of monetary policymakers and the lowest since the second quarter of 2003. In U.S. share markets, further drop in stock prices ensured that the NASDAQ continued to fall, down by 37.10 points (-1.43%) whilst the Dow Jones also tumbled by -208.10 points (-1.54%). Crude Oil rose on Friday by US$2.07 a barrel to US$77.02 as investors remained concerned about recent U.S. economic growth and its effect on near term supplies.

The Euro (EUR) continued to ease on the back of the USD rally. Added to this was a sharp decline in the EURJPY cross with investors taking a risk aversion point of view. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.3630 and a high of 1.3753 before closing the day at 1.3641 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to rally on unwinding of JPY crosses. Overall the USDJPY traded with a range of a low 118.02 and a high of 119.29 before closing the day at 118.81 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) dropped sharply against the dollar simultaneously reaching a six week low versus the Japanese Yen as high yielder's were sold off across the board. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a range of a low 2.0251 and a high of 2.0493 before closing the day at 2.0259 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the biggest mover on Friday easing almost 200 points in the early part of the European Session. The Aussie Dollar moved on the back of the selling off of Japanese crosses which also eased substantially. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a range of a low 0.8520 and a high of 0.8768 before closing the day at 0.8535 in the New York session.

Gold (XAU) fell by US$2.70 an ounce to US$660.10
CURRENCY PAIR IN FOCUS

AUD/JPY The rise in risk aversion originally sent the low-yielding yen to a three-month high against the dollar and a six-week high versus the Euro. However, the Japanese currency's gains versus the dollar proved fleeting, with the greenback boosted by investors repatriating cash out of riskier investments. After an overnight sell-off in credit and stock markets investors continued to pare risky positions such as carry trades, in which they borrow in low yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets. That punished carry-trade favorites such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-30T08:47:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
30 July 2007 06:35:47

Expected Range : 17000 - 17150
Support : 17000 / 16950 / 16900
Resistance : 17150 / 17200 / 17250
Recommendation : Buy 17000
TP 17100, SL 16950

KOSPI
30 July 2007 06:39:19

Expected Range : 234.40 - 239.60
Support : 234.40 / 234.00 / 233.50
Resistance : 239.60 / 240.00 / 240.50
Recommendation : Buy 234.40
TP 235.40 / SL 233.90

HANGSENG
30 July 2007 08:40:12

Expected Range : 22425 - 22750
Support : 22425 / 22350 / 22300
Resistance : 22750 / 22800 / 22850
Recommendation : Buy 22470
TP 22570, SL 22420

GBP / USD
28 July 2007 03:24:07
Closed:2.0267

Expected Range : 2.0173 - 2.0358
Support : 2.0223 / 2.0197 / 2.0156
Resistance : 2.0310 / 2.0356 / 2.0402
Recommendation : Sell 2.0300 TP 2.0223 SL 2.0350
Buy 2.0220 TP 2.0320 SL 2.0190

EUR/USD
28 July 2007 03:17:14
Closed;1.3647

Expected Range : 1.3590 - 1.3750
Support : 1.3611 /1.3587 / 1.3535
Resistance : 1.3690 / 1.3726 / 1.3781
Recommendation : Sell 1.3680 TP 1.3590 SL 1.3720
Buy 1.3620 SL 1.3690 SL 1.3580

USD / JPY
28 July 2007 03:20:31
Closed:118.77

Expected Range : 117.90 - 119.65
Support : 118.46 / 118.06 / 117.90
Resistance : 119.79 / 120.73 / 121.53
Recommendation : Buy 118.20 TP 118.90 SL 117.80
Sell 118.96 TP 118.08 SL 119.16

USD/CHF
28 July 2007 03:27:37
Closed:1.2086

Expected Range : 1.2010 - 1.2168
Support : 1.2045 / 1.2007 / 1.1993
Resistance : 1.2092 / 1.2135 / 1.2167
Recommendation : Buy 1.2030 SL 1.2116 SL 1.2000
Sell 1.2093 TP 1.2024 SL 1.2116

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-27T15:09:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
27 July 2007 13:23:04
(john@tgfnusantara.com)
Expected Range : 22600 - 22750
Support : 22600 / 22550 / 22500
Resistance : 22750 / 22800 / 22850
Recommendation : Sell 22750
TP 22650, SL 22800

GBP / USD
27 July 2007 15:17:11
price ; 2.0376

Expected Range : 2.0493 - 2.0260
Support : 2.0421 / 2.0354 / 2.0284
Resistance : 2.0558 / 2.0628 / 2.0695
Recommendation : sell 2.0360, Sl 2.0410, TP 2.0310
buy 2.0260, SL 2.0210, TP 2.0310

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-26T13:43:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
26 July 2007 13:13:01

Expected Range : 23300 - 23420
Support : 23300 / 23330 / 23300
Resistance : 23420 / 23470 / 23500
Recommendation : Buy 23300
TP 23400, SL 23250

GBP / USD
26 July 2007 14:09:19
Price ; 2.0498

Expected Range : 2.0615 - 2.0402
Support : 2.0458 / 2.0402 / 2.0325
Resistance : 2.0551 / 2.0615 / 2.0652
Recommendation :sell 2.0480, SL 2.0530, TP 2.0430
buy 2.0560, SL 2.0510, TP 2.0610

EUR/USD
26 July 2007 14:31:15
Price ; 1.3714

Expected Range : 1.3750 - 1.3660
Support : 1.3696 / 1.3659 / 1.3615
Resistance : 1.3750 / 1.3801 / 1.3882
Recommendation : sell 1.3750, SL 1.3800, TP 1.3700
sell 1.3695, SL 1.3745, TP 1.3645

USD / JPY
26 July 2007 14:57:45
Price ; 120.37

Expected Range : 120.95 - 119.45
Support : 119.80 / 119.45 / 119.16
Resistance : 120.95 / 121.14 / 121.50
Recommendation : sell 120.95, SL 121.45, TP 120.45
sell 119.75, SL 120.25, TP 119.25

USD/CHF
26 July 2007 15:11:54
Price ; 1.2132

Expected Range : 1.2191 - 1.2110
Support : 1.2110 / 1.2084 / 1.2.011
Resistance : 1.2164 / 1.2191 / 1.2249
Recommendation : sell 1.2190, SL 1.2240, TP 1.2140
buy 1.2115, SL 1.2065, TP 1.2165

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-26T09:01:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
26 July 2007 06:39:28
(john@**ra.com)
Expected Range : 17770 - 17920
Support : 17770 / 17750 / 17700
Resistance : 17920 / 17985 / 18000
Recommendation : Buy 17800
TP 17900, SL 17750

KOSPI
26 July 2007 06:41:07
(john@**ra.com)
Expected Range : 253.65 - 257.00
Support : 253.65 / 253.00 / 252.60
Resistance : 257.00 / 257.65 / 258.35
Recommendation : Buy 254.15
TP 255.15 / SL 253.60

HANGSENG
26 July 2007 08:40:47
(john@**ra.com)
Expected Range : 23300 - 23470
Support : 23300 / 23330 / 23300
Resistance : 23470 / 23535 / 23550
Recommendation : Sell 23470
TP 23370, SL 23520

GBP / USD
26 July 2007 04:02:13
Closed:2.0524

Expected Range : 2.0450 - 2.0612
Support : 2.0482 / 2.0455 / 2.0402
Resistance : 2.0556 / 2.0615 / 2.0648
Recommendation : Sell 2.0580 SL 2.0487 SL 2.0613
Buy 2.0478 TP 2.550 SL 2.0452

EUR/USD
26 July 2007 04:00:39
Closed:1.3712

Expected Range : 1.3650 - 1.3833
Support : 1.3692 / 1.3657 / 1.3618
Resistance : 1.3750 / 1.3801 / 1.3848
Recommendation : Sell 1.3758 SL 1.3680 SL 1.3800
Buy 1.3690 TP 1.3767 SL 1.3650

USD / JPY
26 July 2007 04:02:26
Closed:120.42

Expected Range : 119.89 - 121.07
Support : 120.15 / 119.78 / 119.45
Resistance : 120.81 / 121.07 / 121.54
Recommendation : Buy 120.12.TP 120.84 SL 119.80
Sell 120.80 TP 120.08 SL 121.15

USD/CHF
26 July 2007 04:02:04
Closed:1.2136

Expected Range : 1.2050 - 1.2192
Support : 1.2104 / 1.2084 / 1.2062
Resistance : 1.2153 / 1.2177 / 1.2210
Recommendation : Buy 1.2080 TP 1.2186 SL 1.2050
Sell 1.2193 TP 1.2090 SL 1.2210

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-25T14:10:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
25 July 2007 13:21:39

Expected Range : 23350 - 23470
Support : 23330 / 23330 / 23300
Resistance : 23470 / 23535 / 23550
Recommendation : Sell 23460
TP 23360, SL 23510

GBP / USD
25 July 2007 13:45:57
Price ; 2.0592

Expected Range : 2.0677 - 2.0469
Support : 2.0555 / 2.0469 / 2.0402
Resistance : 2.0652 / 2.0677 / 2.0722
Recommendation : sell 2.0550, SL 2.0600, TP 2.0500
buy 2.0470, SL 2.0420, TP 2.0520

EUR/USD
25 July 2007 14:01:05
Price ; 1.3805

Expected Range : 1.3851 - 1.3740
Support : 1.3795 / 1.3752 / 1.3746
Resistance : 1.3848 / 1.3875 / 1.3899
Recommendation : sell 1.3790, SL 1.3840, TP 1.3740
buy 1.3825, SL 1.3775, TP 1.3875

USD / JPY
25 July 2007 14:13:24
Price ; 120.03

Expected Range : 120.95 - 119.35
Support : 119.79 / 119.35 / 118.68
Resistance : 120.90 / 121.57 / 122.01
Recommendation : sell on bounce 120.90, SL 121.40, TP 120.40
sell 119.75, SL 120.25, TP 119.25

USD/CHF
25 July 2007 14:28:21
Price ; 1.2044

Expected Range : 1.2128 - 1.2011
Support : 1.2001 / 1.1974 / 1.1938
Resistance : 1.2064 / 1.2100 / 1.2127
Recommendation : buy 1.2065, SL 1.2015, TP 1.2115

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-25T08:44:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
25 July 2007 06:43:11

Expected Range : 17700 - 17820
Support : 17700 / 17650 / 17600
Resistance : 17820 / 17865 / 17900
Recommendation : Buy 17700
TP 17800, SL 17650

KOSPI
25 July 2007 06:49:47

Expected Range : 249.50 - 253.35
Support : 249.50 / 249.00 / 248.50
Resistance : 253.30 / 254.00 / 254.40
Recommendation : Buy 250.30
TP 251.30 / SL 249.80

GBP / USD
25 July 2007 03:49:27
Closed:2.0619

Expected Range : 2.0580 - 2.0680
Support : 2.0600 / 2.0568 / 2.0517
Resistance : 2.0651/ 2.0677 / 2.0706
Recommendation : Buy 2.0600 TP 2.0673 TP 2.0570
Sell 2.0650 TP 2.0589 SL 2.0700

EUR/USD
25 July 2007 03:42:48
Closed:1.3819

Expected Range : 1.3780 - 1.3907
Support : 1.3800 / 1.3777 / 1.3758
Resistance : 1.3843 / 1.3871 / 1.3900
Recommendation : Buy 1.3780 TP 1.3859 SL 1.3750
Sell 1.3863 TP 1.3790 SL 1.3880

USD / JPY
25 July 2007 03:45:43
Closed:120.20

Expected Range : 119.80 - 120.80
Support : 120.01 / 119.86 / 119.52
Resistance : 120.86/ 121.23 / 121.87
Recommendation : Sell 120.50 TP 119.80 SL 120.86

USD/CHF
25 July 2007 03:52:35
Closed:1.2031

Expected Range : 1.1987 - 1.2093
Support : 1.2009 / 1.1991 / 1.1982
Resistance : 1.2075/ 1.2091 / 1.2141
Recommendation :
Buy 1.2020 TP 1.2070 SL 1.1990

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-24T14:32:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
24 July 2007 13:36:58

Expected Range : 23370 - 23490
Support : 23370 / 23330 / 23300
Resistance : 23490 / 23550 / 23580
Recommendation : Sell 23490
TP 22390, SL 23540

GBP / USD
24 July 2007 13:32:36
Price : 2.0636

Expected Range : 2.0677 - 2.0570
Support : 2.0570 / 2.0528 / 2.0507
Resistance : 2.0613 / 2.0634 / 2.0666
Recommendation : sell 2.0665, SL 2.0715, TP 2.0615
sell 2.0565, SL 2.0615, TP 2.0515

EUR/USD
24 July 2007 13:55:44
Price ; 1.3818

Expected Range : 1.3883 - 1.3752
Support : 1.3795 / 1.3779 / 1.3739
Resistance : 1.3835 / 1.3843 / 1.3883
Recommendation : buy 1.3845, SL 1.3795, TP 1.3880
sell 1.3790, SL 1.3840, TP 1.3740

USD / JPY
24 July 2007 14:06:05
Price ; 120.61

Expected Range : 121.50 - 120.00
Support : 120.68 / 120.29 / 119.79
Resistance : 121.50 / 122.07 / 122.42
Recommendation : sell 121.45-50, SL 121.95, TP 120.95
sell 120.35, SL 120.85, TP 119.85

USD/CHF
24 July 2007 14:17:54
Price ; 1.2046

Expected Range : 1.2084 - 1.1961
Support : 1.2002 / 1.1944 / 1.1906
Resistance : 1.2098 / 1.2136 / 1.2194
Recommendation : buy 1.2065, SL 1.2015, TP 1.2115
sell 1.2025, SL 1.2075, TP 1.1975

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-24T09:08:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
24 July 2007 06:44:01
(john@tgfnusantara.com)
Expected Range : 17980 - 18170
Support : 17980 / 17900 / 17880
Resistance : 18170 / 18220 / 18250
Recommendation : Buy 18020
TP 18120, SL 17970

KOSPI
24 July 2007 06:45:21

Expected Range : 252.00 - 255.50
Support : 252.00 / 251.50 / 251.00
Resistance : 255.50 / 256.20 / 257.35
Recommendation : Buy 253.00
TP 254.00 / SL 252.50

HANGSENG
24 July 2007 08:44:07

Expected Range : 23250 - 2390
Support : 23250 / 23180 / 23150
Resistance : 23390 / 23430 / 23480
Recommendation : Sell 23390
TP 22290 , SL 23440

GBP / USD
24 July 2007 04:14:43
Closed:2.0586

Expected Range : 2.0550 - 2.0650
Support : 2.0562/ 2.0530 / 2.0483
Resistance : 2.0408 / 2.0641 / 2.0687
Recommendation : Buy 2.0575 TP 2.0615 SL 2.0550
Sell 2.0600 TP 2.0559 SL 2.0650

EUR/USD
24 July 2007 04:12:25
Closed:1.3804

Expected Range : 1.3770 - 1.3880
Support : 1.3793 / 1.3751 / 1.3702
Resistance : 1.3850/ 1.3878 / 1.3902
Recommendation : buy 1.3780 TP 1.3850 SL 1.3750
Sell 1.3835 TP 1.3780 SL 1.3880

USD / JPY
24 July 2007 04:16:30
Closed:121.03

Expected Range : 120.58 - 121.66
Support : 120.86 / 120.50/ 120.15
Resistance : 121.67/ 121.87 / 122.15
Recommendation : sell 121.50 TP 120.78 SL 121.80

USD/CHF
24 July 2007 04:18:16
Closed:1.2063

Expected Range : 1.2000 - 1.2115
Support : 1.2036 / 1.1996 / 1.1988
Resistance : 1.2093 / 1.2115 / 1.2154
Recommendation : Sell 1.2080 TP 1.2026 SL 1.2110
Buy 1.2030 TP 1.2088 SL 1.2000

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-23T15:20:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
23 July 2007 14:47:52

Expected Range : 2.0645 - 2.0469
Support : 2.0492 / 2.0433 / 2.0386
Resistance : 2.0598 / 2.0645 / 2.0704
Recommendation : sell 2.0645, SL 2.0695, TP 2.0595
sell 2.0575, SL 2.0625, TP 2.0525

EUR/USD
23 July 2007 14:52:18

Expected Range : 1.3878 - 1.3752
Support : 1.3788 / 1.3752 / 1.3725
Resistance : 1.3851 / 1.3878 / 1.3914
Recommendation : sell 1.3820, SL 1.3870, TP 1.3770

USD / JPY
23 July 2007 15:03:23

Expected Range : 121.68 - 119.92
Support : 120.56 / 119.92 / 118.99
Resistance : 122.13 / 123.06 / 123.70
Recommendation : sell 121.65, SL 122.15, TP 121.15
sell 120.75, SL 121.25, TP 120.25

USD/CHF
21 July 2007 03:25:45
Closed:1.2013

Expected Range : 1.2065 - 1.1961
Support : 1.1967 / 1.1932 / 1.1883
Resistance : 1.2065 / 1.2100 / 1.2135
Recommendation : buy 1.2005 , SL 1.1955, TP 1.2055

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports

2007-07-23T09:21:00.000+07:00

Forex Exchange Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: NZD well supported by bond-issuance

The NZD opened on Friday morning around 0.7935 and traded a fairly tight range first up with rumours of option barriers at 0.7950 keeping a lid on any upside gains. This level held for the better part of the day, however conceded as strong demand outstripped supply resulting in the NZD closing above 0.7950. Overnight this theme continued as the NZD reached a new all time high of 0.7994. Supporting the NZD was news of a fresh NZ$879m 2yr uridashi from Toyota Finance Australia. NZD/JPY jumped through 97.00 as Japanese housewives continued to chase yield. Finance Minister Cullen's attempts to 'spook' them through the powers he has under section 12 of the Reserve Bank Act were by and large ignored.

Australian Dollar: AUD continues its golden run.

The AUD extended its gains to rise to a new 18-year high of 0.8814 against the weak US dollar as investors continued to chase high yielding currencies. Local PPI data failed to have an impact despite printing stronger. Overnight risk aversion crept back into the market as subprime concerns hit the headlines again with AUD falling around 80 points after reaching a new high of 0.8834. However the currency pair quickly recovered to close around the 0.8800 mark.

Major Currencies: USD weakens as sub-prime losses weigh on equities.

The USD suffered further losses on Friday as sub-prime mortgage concerns continued to weigh on riskier asset classes. US equity markets fell 1%, pushing government bond yields to six week lows after St Louis Federal Reserve President, William Poole, suggested that losses in the non-prime mortgage market were large enough to negatively impact home building and consumer spending. The euro strengthened to a new high of 1.3844, while JPY printed a low of 120.87. Sterling posted a new 26 year high of 2.0587 boosted by stronger than expected Q2 GDP data. A broadly softer USD has pushed the DXY, the index of the USD against other major currencies, to its lowest level in 12 years.

Economic Data and Events

US Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed's Poole, typically a fairly hawkish member, was fairly scathing of losses in the subprime market, saying they have punished 'mostly bad actors and poor lending practices'. He did acknowledge, however, that nonprime mortgages have had the advantage of expanding credit access. While he said that consumer spending could be impacted by subprime losses via a decline in homebuilding, there was no sign of that yet, nor of problems spreading to the overall banking sector.

UK GDP growth 0.8% in Q2. This held annual growth at 3.0% yr, and represents the sixth consecutive quarter where growth has matched or exceeded the 0.7% 'speed limit' generally ascribed to the UK economy. As such, the Bank of England's output gap analysis in the forthcoming August inflation report will likely show intensified inflation concerns. The limited detail in this advance report showed services growth easing slightly to 0.8%, manufacturing accelerating to 0.6% and construction accelerating to 1.1%.

Events Today
Date Country Release Last Forecast
23 Jul Aust Q2 Producer Price Index flat 0.7%
UK Jul R'move House Prices %yr 13.2% 11.2%
24 Jul US Jul Richmond Fed Index 4 6
Fedspeak: Mishkin, Poole
Eur May Current Account €bn –4.0 –0.2
Jul PMI Manufacturing adv 55.6 55.2
Jul PMI Services adv 58.3 58.0

Westpac Institutional Bank

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-23T09:02:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
23 July 2007 06:47:42

Expected Range : 17920 - 18170
Support : 17920 / 17900 / 17880
Resistance : 18170 / 18220 / 18250
Recommendation : Buy 17940
TP 18040, SL 17890

KOSPI
23 July 2007 06:49:26

Expected Range : 249.50 - 253.25
Support : 249.50 / 249.00 / 248.20
Resistance : 253.25 / 253.80 / 254.35
Recommendation : Buy 249.80
TP 250.80 / SL 249.30

HANGSENG
23 July 2007 08:43:05

Expected Range : 23100 - 23230
Support : 23100 / 23050 / 23000
Resistance : 23230 / 23250 / 23300
Recommendation : Sell 23220
TP 22120 , SL 23270

GBP / USD
21 July 2007 03:20:35
Closed:2.0547

Expected Range : 2.0480- 2.0594
Support : 2.0502 / 2.0458 / 2.0418
Resistance : 2.0582 / 2.0612/ 2.0643
Recommendation : Sell 2.0580 TP 2.0505 SL 2.0620
Buy 2.0520 TP 2.0587 SL 2.0480

EUR/USD
21 July 2007 03:18:54
Closed:1.3820

Expected Range : 1.3833 - 1.3752
Support : 1.3786 / 1.3752 / 1.3737
Resistance : 1.3833 / 1.3851 / 1.3872
Recommendation : Sell 1.3850 TP 1.3780 SL 1.3880
Buy 1.3778 TP 1.3853 SL 1.3750

USD / JPY
21 July 2007 03:23:00
Closed:121.23

Expected Range : 120.80 - 122.40
Support : 121.01 / 120.85 / 120.51
Resistance : 121.93 / 122.18 / 122.54
Recommendation : Buy 120.90 TP 121.80 SL 120.50
Sell 121.90 TP 121.00 SL 122.20

USD/CHF
21 July 2007 03:25:45
Closed:1.2013

Expected Range : 1.1977 - 1.2052
Support : 1.1996 / 1.1981 / 1.1957
Resistance : 1.2035 / 1.2067 / 1.282
Recommendation : Buy 1.1990 TP 1.2043 SL 1.1958
Sell 1.2050 TP 1.2000 SL 1.2080

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-19T14:57:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
19 July 2007 14:11:29

Expected Range : 22850 - 23000
Support : 22850 / 22800 / 22750
Resistance : 23000 / 23050 / 22100
Recommendation : Sell 22950
TP 22850 , SL 23000

GBP / USD
19 July 2007 13:52:58
Price ; 2.0528

Expected Range : 2.0570 - 2.0458
Support : 2.0510 / 2.0458 / 2.0421
Resistance : 2.0547 / 2.0570 / 2.0652
Recommendation : sell 2.0506, SL 2.0555, TP 2.0455

sell 2.0570, SL 2.0620, TP 2.0520
EUR/USD
19 July 2007 14:25:38
Price ; 1.3805

Expected Range : 1.3833 - 1.3752
Support : 1.3786 / 1.3752 / 1.3715
Resistance : 1.3817 / 1.3833 / 1.3877
Recommendation : sell 1.3750, SL 1.3800, TP 1.3700
buy 1.3835, SL 1.3785, TP 1.3885

USD / JPY
19 July 2007 14:39:34
Price ; 121.86

Expected Range : 121.60 - 120.98
Support : 121.57 / 121.20 / 120.98
Resistance : 122.40 / 122.61 / 123.08
Recommendation : buy 122.00, SL 121.50, TP 122.50
sell 121.50, SL 122.00, TP 121.00

USD/CHF
19 July 2007 14:59:51
Price ; 1.2005

Expected Range : 1.2067 - 1.1961
Support : 1.1961 / 1.1918 / 1.1876
Resistance : 1.2049 / 1.2084 / 1.2101
Recommendation : sell 1.1960, SL 1.2010, TP 1.1910
buy 1.2.050, SL 1.2000, TP 1.2100

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-19T09:16:00.000+07:00

KOSPI
19 July 2007 06:48:33

Expected Range : 245.05 - 248.00
Support : 245.05 / 244.60 / 244.00
Resistance : 248.00 / 248.80 / 249.50
Recommendation : Buy 245.50
TP 246.50 / SL 245.00

HANGSENG
19 July 2007 08:40:36

Expected Range : 22800 - 22983
Support : 22800 / 22750 / 22700
Resistance : 22983 / 23000 / 22050
Recommendation : Buy 22800
TP 22900 , SL 22750

GBP / USD
19 July 2007 04:13:30
Closed:2.0528

Expected Range : 2.0468 - 2.0585
Support : 2.0510 / 2.0472 / 2.0419
Resistance : 2.0556 / 2.0586 / 2.0612
Recommendation : Buy 2.0480 TP 2.0576 SL 2.0450
Sell 2.0550 TP 2.0470 SL 2.0580

EUR/USD
19 July 2007 04:07:47
Closed:1.3800

Expected Range : 1.3736 - 1.3844
Support : 1.3750 / 1.3716 / 1.3683
Resistance : 1.3806 / 1.3843 / 1.3878
Recommendation : Sell 1.3796 TP 1.3750 SL 1.3820
Buy 1.3758 TP 1.3810 SL 1.3708

USD / JPY
19 July 2007 04:11:53
Close:121.95

Expected Range : 120.96 - 122.58
Support : 121.74 / 121.54 / 120.98
Resistance : 122.09 / 122.54 / 122.69
Recommendation : Sell 122.30 TP 121.64 SL 122.67
Buy 121.50 TP 122.20 SL 121.00

USD/CHF
19 July 2007 04:15:26
Closed:1.2005

Expected Range : 1.1962 - 1.2073
Support : 1.1986 / 1.1948 / 1.1924
Resistance : 1.2040 / 1.2086 / 1.2124
Recommendation : Sell 1.2037 TP 1.1986 SL 1.2068
Buy 1.1985 TP 1.2034 SL 1.1950

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports

2007-07-17T08:44:00.000+07:00

Yield And Commodity Prices Support AUD
New Zealand Dollar: NZD rallies on CPI and USD weakness

After opening quietly around 0.7865 yesterday the NZD immediately rallied on the release of Q2 CPI data which came in at 1.0% for a year-on-year rise of 2.0%. The closely watched non-tradeables portion showed an increase of 1.1%, a level that will cause the RBNZ some concern. This saw the currency trading just short of 0.7900 ahead of rumoured option barriers before settling around 0.7870, triggering stop loss orders on the way down. A late afternoon buying spree saw a second attempt at 0.7900, this time trading as high as 0.7907 before ending the day around 0.7890. Continued USD weakness overnight saw the NZD trade as high as 0.7935, with the currency opening over 50 points higher than yesterday on a trade weighted basis.

Australian Dollar: Yield and commodity prices support AUD

The AUD's status as a high yielder saw it rally sharply yesterday as investors sought better returns on growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep US interest rates on hold. Strong gold and commodity prices also helped push the AUD to an 18-year high, with the currency also trading to a 16-year high against the JPY. Overnight trading saw the currency also supported by USD weakness as it opens today firmly above 0.8700

Major Currencies: USD continues to struggle ahead of key data.

The USD continued to struggle against most of the majors overnight as traders remained bearish the USD ahead of some key data later this week. The GBP continued its recent surge against the USD, touching on new a fresh 26 year high of 2.0405 as traders seemed content on chasing higher yields. The EUR remained close to recent highs, trading in a range of 1.3760 to 1.3804 as traders look ahead to US data for further direction. Most notably, US Producer Price Index out tomorrow as well as inflation and housing data out on Wednesday are expected to be key determinants of whether sentiment out of the US remains negative in the short term.

Economic Data and Events

US NY Fed index rises from 25.8 to 26.5 in July. Although the NY Fed index has regularly spiked into the mid twenties in the past few years, the last occasion that it managed to build upon the previous month's surge with a further rise was in Aug 2005. That suggests that there is some decent strength re-emerging in the region's manufacturing sector; the sharp gains in the orders and jobs indices back that view. In fact the steep fall in inventories suggests that NY bosses may have been a little caught out by the strength of demand for their products this month. But it also points to likely ongoing strength in production in coming months.

Canadian manufacturing shipments fall 0.1% in May. Softness in auto and metals offset gains in aerospace and energy to leave shipments essentially unchanged in May. Because many of these shipments are exports and are priced in US dollars, the rapid appreciation of the C$ dampens the data (i.e. less Canadian dollars are received for a given US dollar price). Adjusting for this, shipment volumes rose 0.4% (a positive for Q2 GDP calculations). Separately, auto sales slipped slightly in May compared to preliminary StatCan guidance which was that sales would be flat. Guidance for June is for a further 1% decline.

Euroland inflation 1.9% yr in June. No revision to the headline rate and the core rate stayed at 1.9% yr for the fifth month running. Given that the European Central Bank's definition of price stability (they don't like the word 'target') is close to but below 2%, this string of 1.9% outcomes must be quite satisfying for ECB officials!

UK house prices 10.9% yr in May. The government's official house price measure (from the Dept for Communities and Local Government) is more dated than the private sector surveys but shows essentially the same story - steady inflation, or perhaps even a slight deceleration so far this year, compared to last year's run up from close to zero growth to double digit inflation at the end of 2006. It seems that the past year of rate rises is starting to impact a little on the housing market; separately, mortgage lending data also show some moderation.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
Aust Jun Merchandise Imports AUDbn 15.6 -
US Jun Producer Price Index/Core 0.9%/0.2% flat/0.2%
May TIC Data $bn 111.8 90.0
Jun Industrial Production flat 0.7%
Jun Capacity Utilisation 81.3% 81.6%
Jul IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.1 47.0
Jul NAHB Index 28 27
Fedspeak: Hoenig
Jpn May Tertiary Activity Index 1.7% 0.2%
Ger Jul ZEW Analysts' Survey 20.3 24.0
UK Jun CPI %yr 2.5% 2.4%

Westpac Institutional Bank

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-17T08:19:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
17 July 2007 07:20:48
(raymond@tgfnusantara.com)
Expected Range : 18150 - 18315
Support : 18150 / 18100 / 18050
Resistance : 18315 /18375 / 18435
Recommendation : Buy 18200
TP 18300, SL 18150

GBP / USD
17 July 2007 03:31:13
Closed:2.0366

Expected Range : 2.0290 - 2.0425
Support : 2.0340 / 2.0282 / 2.0266
Resistance : 2.0391 / 2.0425 / 2.0455
Recommendation : Buy 2.0350 TP 2.0396 SL 2.0300
Sell 2.0385 TP 2.0280 SL 2.0400

EUR/USD
17 July 2007 03:30:56
Closed:1.3772

Expected Range : 1.3730 - 1.3850
Support : 1.3755 / 1.3727 / 1.3681
Resistance : 1.3812 / 1.3849 / 1.3889
Recommendation : Buy 1.3756 TP 1.3812 SL 1.3706
Sell 1.3787 TP 1.3720 SL 1.3806

USD / JPY
17 July 2007 03:31:29
Closed:121.86

Expected Range : 121.20 - 122.64
Support : 121.59 / 121.20 / 120.98
Resistance : 122.12 / 122.53 / 122.92
Recommendation : Sell 122.30 TP 121.73 SL 122.67
Buy 121.60 TP 122.26 SL 121.20

USD/CHF
17 July 2007 03:32:19
Closed:1.2031

Expected Range : 1.1985 - 1.20109
Support : 1.1999 / 1.1982/ 1.1955
Resistance : 1.2050 / 1.2076 / 1.2097
Recommendation : Sell 1.2050 TP 1.1990 SL 1.2095
Buy 1.19890 SL 1.2046 SL 1.1956

Asian Market Update:

2007-07-16T14:52:00.000+07:00

The dollar recovered marginally from a record low against the euro on Monday, supported by strong U.S. consumer sentiment and expectations for hawkish comments from the Fed chairman in testimony this week. Analysts expect Ben Bernanke to tell the U.S. Congress in monetary policy testimony on Wednesday and Thursday that the Federal Reserve is more worried about a flare up in inflation than it is that housing market turbulence may seriously damage the economy.

That helped the dollar recover from a record low of $1.3815 struck against the euro on Friday during a month-long downtrend driven by a fall in retail sales and fears the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis could frighten foreign investors away from U.S. credit markets. At 0230 GMT, the dollar was quoted at $1.3781/84 against the euro.

Last week, ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service warned of downgrades to billions of dollars in risky mortgage debt, undermining the dollar. The dollar trade-weighted index was up modestly at 80.59 on Monday, after hitting a 2-1/2-year low of 80.442 at the end of last week.

U.S. stock markets rallied to record highs on Friday on optimism about consumer sentiment. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary July consumer sentiment index was the highest since January. Although the U.S. reported a steep drop in retail sales for June, traders said the consumer sentiment data supported the

dollar because it was forward looking. Still, many traders expect benchmark U.S. interest rates to stay on hold, while other central banks keep tightening monetary policy.

A public holiday in Japan thinned trading volumes in Asia. The yen was a shade weaker at 122.10 per dollar and seemed to be getting sold against the New Zealand dollar after data showed second-quarter consumer prices in New Zealand rose more than expected. The kiwi traded up to $0.7898, its highest since it was floated in 1985.

Last week, the RBNZ said it will continue to intervene in markets if it saw the currency at extreme levels.

Technicals:

EURUSD
Bullish momentum is still there and a break of 1.3810 will lead to 1.3835 and then 1.3890/00. Support at 1.3760.

GBPUSD
A break of 2.0365 will lead to the 2.0395/00 area and then to 2.0450 and 2.0500. Support at 2.0280.

USDJPY
Next resistance at 122.55 and 122.85. Support at 121.80 and 121.05.

EURJPY
Bullish with next target at 168.95/00. A break there can lead to 169.20 and 169.70. Support at 167.70.

AUDUSD
The bullish run continues. Record high fro the Aussie since 1989. Resistance is at 0.8800 Support at 0.8650.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-16T14:33:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
16 July 2007 13:27:40

Expected Range : 23000 - 23100
Support : 23000 / 22950 / 22900
Resistance : 23100 / 23150 / 23200
Recommendation : Sell 23100
TP 23000 , SL 23150

GBP / USD
16 July 2007 13:54:25
Price ; 2.0342

Expected Range : 2.0365 - 2.0243
Support : 2.0324 / 2.0260 / 2.0243
Resistance : 2.0365 / 2.0383 / 2.0426
Recommendation : sell 2.0320, SL 2.0370, TP 2.0270
buy 2.0245, SL 2.0195, TP 2.0295

EUR/USD
16 July 2007 14:12:16
Price ; 1.3778

Expected Range : 1.3822 - 1.3730
Support : 1.3762 / 1.3730 / 1.3701
Resistance : 1.3813 / 1.3837 / 1.3862
Recommendation : sell 1.3760, SL 1.3810, TP 1.3710
buy 1.3815, SL 1.3765, TP 1.3865

USD / JPY
16 July 2007 14:28:38
Price ; 121.89

Expected Range : 122.61 - 120.98
Support : 121.72 / 121.47 / 121.03
Resistance : 122.43 / 122.87 / 123.13
Recommendation : sell 121.70, SL 122.20, TP 121.20
buy 122.20, SL 121.70, TP 122.70

USD/CHF
14 July 2007 14:47:32
Price ; 1.2022

Expected Range : 1.2067 - 1.1984
Support : 1.1984 / 1.1921 / 1.1880
Resistance : 1.2067 / 1.2101 / 1.2131
Recommendation : sell 1.1980, SL 1.2030, TP 1.1930
buy 1.2070, SL 1.2020, TP 1.2120

USD Mired Near Lows

2007-07-16T10:26:00.000+07:00

Japan's Market Closed for Holiday

At 2:00 AM Germany June HICP m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.2%)
Germany June HICP y/y (exp 2.0%, prev 2.0%)
Germany June CPI m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.2%)
Germany June CPI y/y (exp 1.8%, prev 1.9%)
At 5:00 AM Eurozone CPI m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.2%)
Eurozone CPI y/y (exp 1.9%, prev 1.9%)
Eurozone CPI ex-F&E m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.2%)
Eurozone CPI ex-F&E y/y (exp 1.9%, prev 1.9%)
At 8:30 AM US July NY Fed Manufacturing Survey (exp 18.0, prev 25.75)
Canada May Manufacturing Shipments (exp 0.5%, prev -0.6%)

The dollar continued to struggle in a holiday-thinned Asian session, remaining mired near all-time lows against the euro shy of the 1.38-mark and 26-year lows versus the sterling. Lingering uncertainties stemming from the subprime mortgage market and potential spillover to the overall economy are the catalyst for the latest sell-off in the greenback. Although the FOMC has offered little hints of a possible shift to an easing stance, traders' anticipation for a rate cut either later this year or in early 2008 has compounded the dollar's woes.

Several key US economic reports slated for release this week, including inflation reports, TICS, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, building permits, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. The June CPI report is seen largely unchanged from its previous readings, suggesting the FOMC will continue to focus on inflation. The main event this week however, will be Fed Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony on Wednesday. We anticipate Bernanke to maintain that inflationary pressures on the economy continue to be the Fed's primary concern, albeit acknowledging further slowdown in growth.

Euro Holds Steady Near All-Time Highs

The euro maintains its strength near record highs against the dollar and yen heading into the week. In the coming session, traders will digest inflation data from Germany and the Eurozone. Germany's CPI is forecasted to hold steady at 0.1% versus 0.2% from a month prior and 1.8% from 1.9% in the previous year. Meanwhile, the Eurozone CPI is also largely unchanged around 1.9% annually and 0.1% monthly.

EURUSD hovers just beneath the 1.38-level, with traders intent on pushing the pair towards near record highs. Resistance begins at 1.38, followed by 1.3850 and 1.3880. Subsequent ceilings are seen at 1.39, backed by 1.3940 and 1.40. On the downside, support begins at 1.3740, followed by 1.37 and 1.3650. Additional floors will emerge at 1.3630, backed by 1.36 and 1.3550.

Sterling Remains Buoyed

Cable continues to hold steady near its highest levels in 26-years above the 2.03-level. The coming week will likely push the pair to higher, with slate of UK economic reports due out. The key focus will be CPI data, which will show inflation in the UK remains above the 2% target, at 2.4% -- likely prompting the BoE to continue tightening this year. Traders will also closely scrutinize the MPC's July meeting minutes for confirmation of additional rate hikes. Also due out will be the UK's May labor report, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 5.5%.

MG Financial Group

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-16T08:52:00.000+07:00

KOSPI
16 July 2007 06:50:17

Expected Range : 251.00 - 254.00
Support : 251.00 / 250.50 / 250.20
Resistance : 254.00 / 254.50 / 255.00
Recommendation : Sell 253.70
TP 252.70 / SL 254.20

HANGSENG
16 July 2007 08:42:01

Expected Range : 23000 - 23150
Support : 23000 / 22950 / 22900
Resistance : 23150 / 23200 / 23250
Recommendation : Sell 23150
TP 23050 , SL 23200

GBP / USD
14 July 2007 05:06:44
Close:2.0335

Expected Range : 2.0280 - 3.0420
Support : 2.0324 / 2.0286 / 2.0275
Resistance : 2.0367 / 2.0397 / 2.0425
Recommendation : Buy 2.0290 TP 2.0376 SL 2.0250
Sell 2.0387 TP 2.0296 SL 2.0420

EUR/USD
14 July 2007 05:02:15
Closed:1.3786

Expected Range : 1.3730 - 1.3825
Support : 1.3756 / 1.3723 / 1.3683
Resistance : 1.3803 / 1.3842 / 1.3868
Recommendation : Buy 1.3750 TP 1.3800 SL 1.3700
Sell 1.3793 TP 1.3730 SL 1.3825

USD / JPY
14 July 2007 05:04:36
Close:122.00

Expected Range : 121.67 - 122.78
Support : 121.80 / 121.46 / 121.20
Resistance : 122.45 / 122.69 / 122.92
Recommendation : Buy 121.80 TP 122.54 SL 121.50
Sell 122.45 TP 121.75 SL 122.80

USD/CHF
14 July 2007 05:08:59
Closed:1.2023

Expected Range : 1.1980 - 1.2100
Support : 1.2002 / 1.1984 / 1.1972
Resistance : 1.2058 / 1.2097 / 1.2123
Recommendation : Sell 1.2050 TP 1.1980 SL 1.2100
Buy 1.1990 TP 1.2065 SL 1.1972

US Retail Sales and Import Prices Likely To Drive EUR/USD To Test 1.3800

2007-07-13T09:16:00.000+07:00

Import Price Index (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Expected: 0.7%
Previous: 0.9%

Advance Retail Sales (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Expected: -0.1%
Previous: 1.4%

How Will The Markets React?

On Friday morning, the release of the US import price index and advance retail sales hold major market-moving potential, as the news will reflect two of the most important topics relating US asset trading: inflation and consumption. First, while import price growth is anticipated to slow in June to 0.7 percent, the figure is still relatively buoyant and will likely be supported by high petroleum product prices. Nevertheless, core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) remains the Federal Reserve's predominant concern, so an oil-price led increase in import costs may not lead to extremely hawkish Fed expectations. Meanwhile, advance retail sales are estimated to fall 0.1 percent in June after surging 1.4 percent in May. With average gasoline prices over $3/gallon during that period, the decline is likely to be led by a slump in automobile purchases, as cars and light trucks sold at a 15.6 million annual rate in June - the slowest since October 2005. Excluding automobiles, retail sales are still anticipated to slow substantially to a rate of 0.2 percent from 1.3 percent the month prior. However, there are risks to both the upside and the downside. Good news first: stores like Wal-Mart and Costco have reported better-than-estimated sales results in June. Now the negative: Wal-mart has said that the jump in sales was generally due to price discounts, while Home Depot Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. warned sales and profits will be weaker than expected, partly blaming the woes in the housing sector. Meanwhile, Macy's, JC Penney, and Kohl's all reported disappointing results on soft apparel sales. US markets are likely to respond in similar manners to Friday's data. If the import price report is softer than estimates, bonds and equities are likely to rally while the US dollar will continue to take on additional losses. However, the combination of upside surprises in both the inflation report and retail sales figure will lead the markets to consider the possibilities of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve later this year.

Bonds - US 10-Year Treasury Note Futures

The return to risk appetite saw Fixed Income markets shed a good portion of very recent advances, with the 10-Year Treasury Note futures losing down to 105-04. However, support at the 104-27/105 level could prevent additional losses, especially if import prices and retail sales hit the tape at softer than expected levels, as markets would be little swayed to price in Fed tightening. On the other hand, signs that both inflation and consumption are growing could send Treasuries plummeting lower.

FX - EUR/USD

As traders desperately search for a top in EUR/USD, the release of US economic data regarding both inflation and consumption will draw a significant amount of attention. However, the estimates for Friday's import price index and retail sales figure may only push the pair up to 1.3800, as price growth is expected to ease while consumption is predicted to take a hit. These factors would be highly bearish for the US dollar, as the markets will see such data as a signal that the Fed will remain on hold throughout the rest of the year, despite their persistently hawkish stance. Nevertheless, 1.3800 represents a psychologically important level for EUR/USD, so a sell-off of the US dollar to that figure may be capped. Furthermore, the move could result in a sharp turnaround, especially if the data is mixed, as dollar bulls waiting in the wings will be looking for any reason to fade the overextended pair

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-13T08:32:00.001+07:00

NIKKEI
13 July 2007 06:30:12

Expected Range : 18150 - 18280
Support : 18150 / 18100 / 18050
Resistance : 18280 /18320 / 18375
Recommendation : Sell 18280
TP 18180, SL 18330

KOSPI
13 July 2007 06:35:39

Expected Range : 245.00 - 249.30
Support : 245.00 / 244.45 / 243.70
Resistance : 249.30 / 249.85 /250.45
Recommendation :
Buy 245.50
TP 246.50 / SL 245.00

GBP / USD
13 July 2007 04:43:30
Closed:2.0293

Expected Range : 2.0267 - 2.0386
Support : 2.0275 / 2.0256 / 2.0225
Resistance : 2.0330 / 2.0365 / 2.0388
Recommendation : Buy 2.0280 TP 2.0350 SL 2.0250
Sell 2.0345 TP 2.0268 SL 2.0380

EUR/USD
13 July 2007 04:45:03
Closed:1.3783

Expected Range : 1.3725 - 1.3820
Support : 1.3720 / 1.3683 / 1.3643
Resistance : 1.3803 / 1.3852 / 1.3886
Recommendation : Buy 1.3750 TP 1.3798 SL 1.3700
Sell 1.3800 TP 1.3740 SL 1.3830

USD / JPY
13 July 2007 04:43:54
Closed:122.45

Expected Range : 121.82 - 122.87
Support : 122.12 / 121.81 / 11.35
Resistance : 122.72 / 123.01 / 123.48
Recommendation : Sell 122.67 TP 121.86 SL 122.96
Buy 122.08 TP 122.83 SL 121.80

USD/CHF
13 July 2007 04:42:00
Closed:1.2031

Expected Range : 1.1.9990 - 1.2120
Support : 1.2008 / 1.1993 / 1.1981
Resistance : 1.2065 / 1.2099 / 1.2121
Recommendation : Sell 1.2086 TP 1.2008 SL 1.2120
Buy 1.2000 Tp 1.2063 SL 1.1980

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-13T08:32:00.000+07:00

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-10T08:39:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
10 July 2007 06:36:27

Expected Range : 18150 - 18280
Support : 18150 / 18100 / 18020
Resistance :
18280 / 18330 / 18380
Recommendation : Sell 18280 TP 18180, SL 18330

KOSPI
10 July 2007 06:42:03

Expected Range : 239.00 - 241.85
Support : 239.00 / 238.50 / 238.15
Resistance : 241.85 / 242.50 /243.00
Recommendation : Sell 241.50 TP 240.50 / SL 242.00

GBP / USD
10 July 2007 04:47:54
Closed;2.0145

Expected Range : 2.0127 - 2.0200
Support : 2.0130 / 2.0094 / 2.0074
Resistance : 2.0174 / 2.0199 / 2.0225
Recommendation : Buy 2.0130 TP 2.0180 SL 2.0100
Sell 2.0186 TP 2.0120 SL 2.0200

EUR/USD
10 July 2007 04:45:37
Closed:3618

Expected Range : 1.3570 - 1.3680
Support : 1.3583 / 1.3542 / 1.3503
Resistance : 1.3643 / 1.3674 / 1.3702
Recommendation : Buy 1.3605 TP 1.3665 SL 1.3580
Sell 1.3640 TP 1.3590 SL 1.3680

USD / JPY
10 July 2007 04:48:07
Closed:123.38

Expected Range : 123.08 - 124.00
Support : 123.10 / 122.981 / 122.66
Resistance : 123.63 / 123.94 / 124.16
Recommendation : Buy 123.30 TP 123.86 SL 123.00

USD/CHF
10 July 2007 04:47:47
Closed:1.2168

Expected Range : 1.2120 - 1.2200
Support : 1.2142 / 1.2108 / 1.2082
Resistance : 1.2193 / 1.2208 / 1.2242
Recommendation : Sell 1.2196 TP 1.2140 SL 1.2208
Buy 1.2130 TP 1.2193 SL 1.2100

This Signal design just for currency GBP/US, EU,CHF

2007-07-09T14:54:00.000+07:00

Great British Pound(GBP)

The British pound dropped down in a strong bearish pattern to hit the major support level at 2.0060s. The pressure on the buying side was obvious at the bottom which in role pushed the pound towards the upside to close then in a balanced pattern; nevertheless the technical indicators show the upside move for the week ahead.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 2.0200 and the key support level at 2.0050.

The general trend is up as far as 1.9475 and 1.9360 remains intact targets now at 2.0100 and 2.0240

Recommendation : We expect buying sterling above 2.0080 with a target at 2.0145, stop loss below 2.0055.

EURO

The European currency dropped down last Friday to hit the key support level at 1.3590s to reveres then towards the upside in order to bounce some of the losses due to the downside drop; the euro then opened the upside channel to set the target at 1.3670s major resistance level in the week ahead.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 1.3670 and the key support level at 1.3580.

The general trend is up as far as 1.3235 remains intact targets now at 1.3700 and 1.3840

Recommendation : We expect buying euro above 1.3618 with a target at 1.3670, stop loss below 1.3580

SWISS Frank(CHF)

Since the dollar against the SWISS Frank drove through the upside channel last Friday at the beginning of the session to drop down then in terms of recovering the bullish losses; this move might be considered a preparation for a downside drop in the upcoming days.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistance at 1.2220 and the key support at 1.2130.

The general trend is down as far as 1.2540 remains intact, targets at 1.1875 and 1.1665.

Recommendation : We expect buying USD/CHF above 1.2150 with a target at 1.2220, stop loss below 1.2100.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-09T14:17:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG
9 July 2007 13:17:22

Expected Range : 22580 - 22750
Support : 22580 / 22520 / 22450
Resistance : 22750 / 22800 / 22850
Recommendation : Sell 22750

TP 22650 , SL 22800
GBP / USD
9 July 2007 13:39:19
Price ; 2.0103

Expected Range : 2.0149 - 2.0042
Support : 2.0056 / 2.0015 / 1.9974
Resistance : 2.0140 / 2.0190 / 2.0206
Recommendation : sell 2.0095, SL 2.0145, TP 2.0045
buy 2.0145, SL 2.0095, TP 2.0195

EUR/USD
9 July 2007 14:06:32
Price ; 1.3622

Expected Range : 1.3680 - 1.3567
Support : 1.3580 / 1.3537 / 1.3507
Resistance : 1.3653 / 1.3683 / 1.3726
Recommendation : sell 1.3605, SL 1.3655, TP 1.3555
buy 1.3645, SL 1.3595, TP 1.3680

USD / JPY
7 July 2007 14:52:32
Closed;123.37

Expected Range : 123.93 - 122.87
Support : 123.09 / 122.96 / 122.55
Resistance 123.65 / 123.93 / 124.13
Recommendation : buy 123.10, SL 122.60, TP 123.60
sell 123.90, SL 124.40, TP 123.40

USD/CHF
7 July 2007 15:08:28
Closed;1.2181

Expected Range : 1.2259 - 1.2091
Support : 1.2150 / 1.2120 / 1.2079
Resistance : 1.2221 / 1.2262 / 1.2292
Recommendation : buy 1.2195, SL 1.2165, TP 1.2245
sell 1.2160, SL 1.2210, TP 1.2110

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports

2007-07-09T09:14:00.000+07:00

UK PPI Data Will Influence Interest Rate Expectations

Sterling will remain very sensitive to inflation data, especially as markets are expecting further interest rate increases. The producer prices impact will be curbed to some extent by the fact that the consumer inflation data is not due until next week.

The rise in energy prices is likely to put further upward pressure on input prices in the latest monthly data, following on from the 1.2% increase recorded last month. In this context, Sterling will tend to strengthen immediately if input prices rise by more than 1.3% over the month while a rise of 0.7% or less would tend to weaken the UK currency.

The Bank of England will also be watching the output prices data very closely and this data is liable to have the greater medium-term impact on interest rate expectations. The central bank is still very concerned that a rise in input prices will also lead on to higher output prices and maintain general upward pressure on inflation. A key first sign of success for the bank will be if companies are less able to pass on cost increases. The latest survey evidence has generally suggested that companies are still pushing prices higher, although pressures do not appear to have intensified.

A monthly increase of more than 0.5% in output prices and 0.4% for core output prices would reinforce fears that corporate pricing policies, allied with higher costs, are pushing overall inflation higher. This would increase the risk of further interest rate increases and provide short-term Sterling support. The UK currency will be vulnerable to significant selling pressure if core output prices do not increase over the month even if there is a robust input prices figure.

Investica

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-09T08:15:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
9 July 2007 06:44:57

Expected Range : 18180 - 18350
Support : 18180 / 18100 / 18020
Resistance : 18350 / 18410 / 18475
Recommendation : Sell 18300
TP 18200, SL 18350

KOSPI
9 July 2007 06:43:50

Expected Range : 236.00 - 239.50
Support : 236.00 / 235.50 / 235.00
Resistance : 239.50 / 240.00 / 240.50
Recommendation : Sell 239.05
TP 238.05 / SL 239.55

GBP / USD
7 July 2007 04:49:23
Closed:2.0104

Expected Range : 2.0050 - 2.0157
Support : 2.0089 / 2.0057 / 2.0016
Resistance : 2.0140 / 2.0177 / 2.0202
Recommendation : Sell 2.0130 TP 2.0067 SL 2.0180
Buy 2.0080 TP 2.0125 SL 2.0050

EUR/USD
7 July 2007 04:50:22
Closed:1.3620

Expected Range : 1.3564 - 1.3680
Support : 1.3600 / 1.35582 / 1.3546
Resistance : 1.3640 / 1.3663 / 1.3694
Recommendation : sell 1.3650 TP 1.3576 SL 1.3680

USD / JPY
7 July 2007 04:49:55
Closed;123.37

Expected Range : 122.90 - 123.92
Support : 123.00 / 122.76 / 122.59
Resistance : 123.50 / 123.92 / 124.06
Recommendation : Buy 123.05 TP 123.80 SL 122.80
Sell 123.50 TP 122.78 SL 124.00

USD/CHF
7 July 2007 04:48:34
Closed;1.2181

Expected Range : 1.2160 - 1.2250
Support : 1.2158/ 1.2124/ 1.2092
Resistance : 1.2203/ 1.2244 / 1.2283
Recommendation : Buy 1.2170 TP 1.2230 SL 1.2150
Sell 1.2250 TP 1.2180 Sl 1.2300

Asian Market Update:

2007-07-06T15:35:00.000+07:00

The Dollar held onto its gains in Asian trade after strong US services data soothed concerns that the Federal Reserve might have to cut interest rates later this year.

The Dollar rose against the Euro, Sterling and Yen yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s services index rose in June to its highest level in a year, beating forecasts for a small decline.

Activity was subdued in Asian trading however, as the market is waiting for the US payrolls due later today for more clues about the future path of the Fed’s monetary policy.

Economists forecast a median 120,000 new jobs were created in June compared with 157,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.5%.

Another US report yesterday from private employment services company ADP Employer Services pointed to strong job growth, leading market participants to believe that the Labor Department’s jobs data at 12:30 GMT will be better than expected.

The Dollar is trading at 123.10 Yen, little moved from late New York trade. The Euro is also steady at $1.3595, off a two-month high of $1.3660 hit yesterday.

The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold at 4% yesterday, as expected. At the same time, the central bank suggested it would tightened rates in coming months to fight inflation.

A Reuters poll showed on Tuesday a majority of economists expect the ECB to raise rates in September.

The Bank of England raised interest rates yesterday, as expected, to 5.75% and said inflation risks remained on the upside. A Reuters poll taken shortly after the BoE’s rate announcement showed that just over half the economists surveyed forecast British interest rates will hit 6% this year.

Technicals:

EURUSD
Resistance at 1.3634 and 1.3673/82. Support at 1.3581 and 1.3527.

GBPUSD
Resistance now at 2.0160 and then 2.0200. Support at 2.0095.

USDJPY
Bullish with next target at 123.28 and then 123.75. Support at 122.70 and 122.07/14.

EURJPY
Resistance at 167.50and 168.00. Support at 167.19 and 166.50.

AUDUSD
Prices are pushing higher with resistance at 0.8598. Support at 0.8550 and 0.8494.

FX Overview

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports

2007-07-06T15:15:00.000+07:00

Today's Key Points

* The bearish steepener is back. US yields soared 10bp yesterday. Equities have retreated in Asia and the FX market is stable.
* Today's main event is the US non-farm payrolls report. We expect a reading below market expectations.
* The Swedish National Debt Office borrowing requirement for June is published today.

Markets Overnight

Yesterday saw a huge move given the weight normally attached to the ADP report and ISM non-manufacturing data. US 10yr yields rose no less than 10bp and 2yr yields soared by 8bp. Once again we are thus facing a bearish steepening of the US curve. The very same trend we saw during the bear market in May-June.

On the equity side the S&P500 stayed unchanged in yesterday's trading session, whereas the Nasdaq rose by 0.4%. So far this morning the Asian stock indices are down.

The FX market has seen few changes since yesterday afternoon. Since the EUR/USD broke through 136 on the downside the cross has remained unchanged just below 136. The EUR/JPY is still close to the all time high levels as it lingers above 167.2. The Scandinavian currencies have not seen any major shifts. The EUR/NOK has continued its move towards 790.

Global Daily

The release of the US employment report today is likely to set the tone in the financial markets during the coming weeks. We expect non-farm payrolls to show job creation of 115k, down from 147k and somewhat below consensus of 120k. However, risks are clearly to the upside following yesterday's strong ADP employment survey, which posted an increase by 150k. The US unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.5%.

As far as yields are concerned, though, the risk ought to be on the downside, since the market has already priced in a strong report. Large surprises in the employment report will likely push the EUR/USD out of its recent range of 1.358-1.368 - and if our employment estimate is correct, we expect a test of 1.368. In the UK, the report on industrial production could be interesting to follow after the Bank of England hiked rates yesterday. We expect the EUR/GBP to move towards the 0.67 level in the coming week.

Scandi Daily

The Swedish National Debt Office borrowing requirement for June is published at 09:30. The SNDO forecasts SEK 0.0bn, which is 4.7bn lower than the old forecast due to eg higher tax revenues and higher dividends on state-owned companies. The full year forecast was recently raised to 138bn from 112bn. Hence, money continues to flood into government finances. The EUR/SEK and 2y government yield spread remained stable yesterday at around 9.15 and 25bp respectively.

Danske Bank

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-06T14:50:00.000+07:00

HANGSENG

6 July 2007 14:05:47

Expected Range : 22450 - 22550
Support : 22450 / 22400 / 22350
Resistance : 22550 / 22600 / 22650
Recommendation : Sell 22550
TP 22450 , SL 22600

GBP / USD
6 July 2007 14:07:20
Price ; 2.0103

Expected Range : 2.0173 - 2.0016
Support : 2.0042 / 2.0016 / 1.9928
Resistance : 2.0127 / 2.0173 / 2.0206
Recommendation : sell 2.0080, SL 2.0130, TP 2.0030
buy 2.0130, SL 2.0080, TP 2.0180

EUR/USD
6 July 2007 14:30:10
Price ; 1.3588

Expected Range : 1.3630 - 1.3482
Support : 1.3545 / 1.3515 / 1.3485
Resistance : 1.3603 / 1.3630 / 1.3680
Recommendation : sell 1.3575, SL 1.3635, TP 1.3525
sell 1.3630, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3580

USD / JPY
6 July 2007 14:52:51
Price ; 123.18

Expected Range : 124.13 - 122.07
Support : 123.00 / 122.68 / 122.07
Resistance : 123.55 / 123.93 / 124.13
Recommendation : buy 123.60, SL 123.10, TP 124.10
sell 122.95, SL 123.45, TP 122.45

USD/CHF
6 July 2007 15:09:58
Price ; 1.2196

Expected Range : 1.2259 - 1.2091
Support : 1.2160 / 1.2091 / 1.2055
Resistance : 1.2225 / 1.2259 / 1.2320
Recommendation : sell 1.2255-60, SL 1.2305, TP 1.2205
buy 1.2205, SL 1.2155, TP 1.2255

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-06T11:53:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
6 July 2007 10:15:51

Expected Range : 18040 - 18150
Support : 18040 / 18000 / 17960
Resistance : 18150 / 18205 / 18250
Recommendation : Sell 18140
TP 18040, SL 18190

KOSPI
6 July 2007 06:51:40
(john@tg)
Expected Range : 234.40 - 237.00
Support : 234.40 / 234.00 / 233.50
Resistance : 237.00 / 237.50 / 238.25
Recommendation : Sell 236.80
TP 235.80 / SL 237.30

HANGSENG
6 July 2007 08:53:33
(john@tg)
Expected Range 22100 - 22250
Support : 22100 / 22050 / 22000
Resistance : 22250 / 22300 / 22350
Recommendation : Sell 22250
TP 22150 , SL 22300

GBP / USD
6 July 2007 04:33:18
Closed:2.0119

Expected Range : 2.0070 - 2.0192
Support : 2.0103 / 2.0084 / 2.0060
Resistance : 2.0140 / 2.0177 / 2.0192
Recommendation : Sell 2.0150 TP 2.0080 SL 2.0200

EUR/USD
6 July 2007 04:34:41
Closed:1.3600

Expected Range : 1.3550 - 1.3656
Support : 1.3580 / 1.3571 / 1.3542
Resistance : 1.3636 / 1.3654 / 1.3682
Recommendation : Sell 1.3620 TP 1.2580 SL 1.3650
Buy 1.3580 TP 1.3630 SL 1.3550

USD / JPY
6 July 2007 04:34:06
Closed:122.87

Expected Range : 122.34 - 123.55
Support : 122.50 / 122.28 / 122.09
Resistance : 123.00 / 123.28 / 123.55
Recommendation : Buy 122.75 TP 123.20 SL 122.50
Sell 123.00 TP 122.40 SL 123.55

USD/CHF
6 July 2007 04:32:40
CLOSED:1.2169

Expected Range : 1.2120 - 1.2250
Support : 1.2144/ 1.2109 / 1.2092
Resistance : 1.2200 / 1.2243 / 1.2281
Recommendation : Buy 1.2145 TP 1.2193 TP 1.2100
Sell 1.2200 TP 1.2230 SL 1.2250

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports

2007-07-06T09:13:00.000+07:00

Forex Exchange Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: Up and down for NZD

Another light data day yesterday resulted in stagnant trading for the NZD sitting in a 14pt range between 0.7808 and 0.7822. Overnight the NZD was bought from the outset, initially struggling to get over the 0.7850 barrier, before surging through a number of stop losses in the market and peaking at a fresh 25 year high of 0.7880. Stronger than expected US data helped ease concerns in the market that the Fed may look to cut interest rates by year end. This saw investors quickly turn on the NZD, selling it from 0.7880 down to 0.7818, just under the close of yesterday's local session.

Australian Dollar: Roundabout day for AUD

A quiet day in the local markets yesterday saw the AUD trade between 0.8568 and 0.8584 throughout. During the off-shore session, the AUD was bought by yield hungry investors who pushed it through 0.8600 for the first time in 18 years before it peaked at 0.8610. Like the rest of its major counterparts, stronger than expected US data overnight signalled the turning point for the AUD with investors selling the currency for the remainder of the off-shore session seeing it close at around 0.8560.

Major Currencies: Favourable US data eases interest rate cut concerns.

An unexpected rise in the ISM's non-manufacturing index for June helped push the USD higher overnight, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates later this year. Further supporting the move and sentiment was the additional release of another report which showed a higher gain in private sector jobs, boosting expectations that tonight's payrolls data may also be stronger than expected. As expected the ECB kept interest rates on hold, however governor Trichet gave little away as to clues about potential future hikes, saying that he did not intend to sway the market's expectations about the future path of monetary tightening in the eurozone. The BoE did raise interest rates as expected, which saw the GBP maintain its recent bullish tone, with the BoE commenting that risks in the medium-term continued to lie to the upside and that most measures of pricing pressure remained elevated.

Overnight News

US ISM non manufacturing rises to 60.7 in June. The services and construction headline unexpectedly rose further in June, suggesting that favourable weather and flattering seasonals weren't the only factors lifting this index of business confidence earlier in Q2. However, the detail in the report was less impressive, with orders slowing a little and jobs barely changed. That suggests that the headline might not sustain its recent strength heading into Q3. The detail in the report also showed that construction was the best performing industry, followed by real estate, which is a little surprising given the malaise in the housing sector. The other twelve sectors all reported gains as well.

US labour market data overnight kicked off with the ADP estimate of private payrolls. ADP 'got it right' back in April but under-estimated strength in the official report in March and May. ADP's 150k estimate for June suggest a strong payrolls report tomorrow but it could also be that it is correcting for that weakness in March/May. So we aren't changing our 130k forecast for tonight's headline payrolls gain. Initial jobless claims rose 2k to 318k but there was a very steep jump in continuing claims in the prior week, which could be a signal of rising unemployment. It could also just be volatility.

The European Central Bank left the repo rate unchanged at 4.0%. ECB chief Trichet reiterated that the ECB was 'closely monitoring' the situation, which is a vague signal that rates might eventually go higher.

The Bank of England lifted the repo rate 25bps to 5.75%, the fifth hike since August last year. The statement noted that 'output growth has remained firm and appears to be evolving in line with the Committee's most recent projections'. Those projections in May had inflation back at the 2% target on the 2 year forecast horizon, based on one further rate rise (which was then market pricing), so that would seem to indicate that there is not a strong body of opinion on the committee seeking further immediate tightening.

Canadian data strong. A strong rise in the Ivey PMI to 67.4 in June and a 21.4% surge in May building permits.

Events Today
Date Country Release Last Forecast
6 Jul US Jun Non Farm Payrolls chg 157k 130k
Jun Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.4%
Fedspeak: Yellen
UK May Industrial Production 0.3% 0.3%
Can Jun Employment Chg 9k 25k
G7 OECD Leading Index 105.3 n/f
9 Jul Aus Jun ANZ Job Ads 10.3% n/f
US May Consumer Credit $bn 2.6 8.0
Ger May industrial production –2.3% 1.0%

Westpac Institutional Bank

This Signal design just for currency GBP/US, EU,CHF

2007-07-05T16:43:00.000+07:00

Great British Pound(GBP)

The British pound moved towards the upside to hit the key resistance level at 2.0215, then dropped down again to the opening level, this move reflected by the low momentum since the pound got in an overbought area. Today the pound might drop down slightly to cover some of the bullish move.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 2.0250 and the key support level at 2.0100. The general trend is up as far as 1.9475 and 1.9360 remains intact targets now at 2.0100 and 2.0240

Recommendation : We expect selling sterling below 2.0185 with a target at 2.0100, stop loss above 2.0250

(EURO)

The European currency was a bit neutral yesterday since it lacked momentum by which the euro consolidated at top of the bullish wave that the euro formed last week. Meantime the euro still finds tendency towards the upside.

The trading range for today might be between the key resistance level at 1.3660 and the key support level at 1.3580. The general trend is up as far as 1.3235 remains intact targets now at 1.3700 and 1.3840

SWISS Frank(CHF)

Since the dollar against the SWISS Frank moved towards the upside slightly to progress the projection move that it preferred to make from the bottom at 1.2100 support level. The upcoming move might be towards the upside too.

The trading range for today will be between the key resistance at 1.2200 and the key support at 1.2130. The general trend is down as far as 1.2540 remains intact, targets at 1.1875 and 1.1665.

Recommendation : We expect buying USD/CHF above 1.2150 with a target at 1.2200, stop loss below 1.2100.

Forex Daily Technical Report

2007-07-05T16:23:00.000+07:00

Euro Resumes Rally. BoE, ECB, ADP and ISM Awaited

While Sterling traders are still holding their breath ahead of BoE rate decision, Euro traders led the way by resuming recent rally against dollar in early European session ahead of ECB announcement and press conference. EUR/JPY also broke to new record high of 167.27. Strength is also apparent in EUR/GBP as the cross is now pressing last week's high of 0.6768. Much volatility is anticipated today as in addition to the mentioned central bank announcements, ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index will be featured.

The mostly watched event of the day will be BoE rate decision. Sterling has been strong, supported by expectation that BoE will hike 25bps to 5.75% today. The expectation was triggered by minutes of last month's tight 5-4 vote to keep rates unchanged, with Governor Mervyn King voted for a hike indeed, along with John Gieve, Tim Besley, and Andrew Sentance. Later in the Testimony to Treasury Committee, King continued to emphasize the upside risks to inflation. Besley said that by moving immediately, the bank would be better able to cope with the inflation created by the expansion of demand. John Gieve also reiterated rates were not rising fast enough to contain credit growth. Looking at the economic picture, house prices continued to growth strongly with credit demand only showed little sign of easing. That will provide the hawks with bullets to convince for an immediate hike. However, headline inflation has softened a lot from March's peak of 3.1% to 2.5% while factory gate inflation is at a reasonable level. That will continue to provide the support for the doves to continue their wait-and-see for more data stance. The decision today will be a tight a difficult one and could flip either way with a tight margin. Technically speaking, GBP/USD is now met an important upside target of 2.0207 and turned sideway since then. Further upside is still in favor as long as 2.0130 minor support holds. However, a drop below would likely trigger profit taking and a deeper pull back before building the base for another rally.

ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.0% today. Focus will be on Trichet's press conference again. Note that Trichet still described monetary policy as "still on the accommodative side" last month which suggested that ECB is still having a tightening bias. The coming meeting in August will be carried out over the phone instead of meeting in person in Frankfurt. And, in its entire history, the ECB has never agreed on rate changes at a summer phone conference. So, there shouldn't be any signal for rate hike, and no mentioning of the magic word "vigilance" in today's press conference. Instead, markets are expecting a Sep hike. Today's focus will actually be on hints of monetary policy movements beyond September.

Out of US, two market moving economic data will be featured. The ADP employment report, which is usually used as a preview to Non-Farm Payroll, is expected to show improvement in job growth from 87k to 100k in Jun. Surprise in this data will likely change the expectation on tomorrow's NFP which is expected to show 129k job growth in the same month. Meanwhile, ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to drop slightly from 59.7 to 58.0 in Jun. Price Paid index is expected to moderate from 66.4 to 64.0, which will be consistent with the ISM manufacturing price index which showed easing in pipeline inflation pressure.

USD/CAD spiked to a new 30 year low last Friday but turned into choppy consolidation after disappointing GDP data. Technically speaking, the consolidative nature of this week's price moments suggest that 1.0468 is not an important bottom yet and further downside is still expected to follow. Markets will be closely watching today's Ivey PMI, which is expected to rise from 62.7 to 63.0 in Jun and that could be the trigger for resumption of fall in USD/CAD.

EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3601; (P) 1.3616; (R1) 1.3626

EUR/USD's recent rally resumes in early European session by breaking above 1.3637 and reaches as high as 1.3645 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as EUR?USD stays above 1.3603 minor support. Further rise is expected to be seen to retest 1.3681 high. Touching of 1.3603 will suggest that a short term top is formed, possibly with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case, deeper pull back could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3528) before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, break of mentioned 1.3553 resistance confirms that fall from 1.3681 is corrective in nature, completed with three waves down to 1.3262, just meeting 100% projection of 1.3681 to 1.3391 from 1.3553 at 1.3263. In other words, with whole up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress, also considering that medium term rising channel remains intact. Further rally is expected to be seen towards 61.8% projection of 1.2865 to 1.1.3681 from 1.3262 at 1.3766.

However, we maintain that risk of medium term reversal remains high. Upside momentum continues to diminish with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. As discussed before, whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483, which is treated as resumption of up trend from 1.1639. Such up trend is now is expected to terminate between 61.8% projection of 1.2865 to 1.1.3681 from 1.3262 at 1.3766 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822.

But still, even though a break below 1.3421 support will turn short term outlook bearish again, sustained trading below medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3129) is needed to confirm whole up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Otherwise, another high could still be seen before EUR/USD finally make an important top.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0140; (P) 2.0171; (R1) 2.0193

Cable continues to consolidate below 2.0206 high today. But after all downside is still contained by 2.0130 minor support. Consolidation would still likely be brief as long as this minor support holds. And sustained break of 2.0206 high will further confirm underlying medium term strength in cable and bring another powerful rally.

However, note that an important medium term target of 61.8% projection of 1.9183 to 2.0132 from 1.9621 at 2.0207 is met. Break of 2.0130 support, with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, will suggest that at least a short term top is formed and bring deeper pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 2.0065) or lower.

In the bigger picture, the completion of the fall from 2.0132 in a corrective 3 wave manner and the holding of the medium term rising channel indicates that rise from 1.8090 is still in progress, so is the whole up trend from 1.7047. There are various interpretation of the rally from 1.7047 but none is really convincing yet. Also, medium term upside momentum remains unconvincing with bearish divergence conditions staying in weekly MACD and RSI as well as daily MACD and RSI.

Focus should now be on 2.0207 projection target. Sustained break of this level will add much credence to the case that whole up trend from 1.7047 is resumption of multi-year up trend from 1.3680. In such case, further rally should then be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.0677 first. On the other hand, failure of taking out this projection target and sustained trading below medium term rising channel (now at 1.9744) will argue that whole rise from 1.7047 has completed and put 1.9183 support into focus.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2148; (P) 1.2158; (R1) 1.2172

USD/CHF's recovery from 1.2089 is limited at 1.2176, below 38.2% retracement of 1.2339 to 1.2089 at 1.2185 and falls sharply in early European session today. The strength of the current fall suggest that consolidation could have completed. 1.2089 low is now is focus and break will confirm that recent sharp decline from 1.2467 has resumed for 1.1993 low. However, above 1.2176 again will indicate consolidation is still in progress for 1.2185 fibo resistance or above. But still, upside should be limited below 1.2258 support turned resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, break of 1.2146 support confirmed that rise from 1.1993 has completed with three waves up to 1.2467. Such development revived the case that price actions from 1.1919 is merely a medium term triangle consolidation and could have already completed at 1.2467. Sustained break of 1.1993 low will confirm such case and indicate that whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has finally resumed for next downside target of 1.1878 low first.

However, note that USD/CHF is still kept inside established range of 1.1878 and 1.2571. Above 1.2239 resistance will indicate that current fall from 1.2467 has completed and turn short term outlook mixed again as consolidation continue to extend inside mentioned range.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.37; (P) 122.54; (R1) 122.87

USD/JPY's corrective fall from 124.13 was contained at 1.2208, supported by mentioned 122.01/05 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 120.76 to 124.13 at 122.05 and 23.6% retracement of 115.13 to 124.13 at 122.01). Subsequent recovery has pushed USD/JPY briefly above 122.72 minor resistance, with both 4 hours MACD and RSI breaking their down trend. A short term bottom is likely formed at 122.08 already. Despite the pull back in early European session, further rally is in favor towards 123.55 resistance. And break will confirm that correction from 124.13 has completed and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture rise from 115.13 is still in progress with 122.01/05 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 120.76 to 124.13 at 122.05 and 23.6% retracement of 115.13 to 124.13 at 122.01) remains intact. Such rally is treated as resumption of the rise from 108.99, which in turn, is the resumption of whole up trend from 101.66 after interim correction has completed with three waves down from 121.38 to 108.99. Further rally is expected to be seen to next medium term target of resistance zone of 100% projection of 101.65 to 121.38 from 108.99 at 128.72 and 100% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 128.31.

However, break of 122.01/05 cluster support will indicate rise from 115.13 has completed and bring deeper correction to next cluster support of 120.76 (38.2% retracement of 115.13 to 124.13 at 120.69). But still, rise from 108.99 is still in force as long as pull back is contained well above 115.13 low.

Also, note that USD/JPY is staying comfortably above the long term falling trend line (147.68 to 135.20). Multi-year consolidation pattern that started from 147.60 should have already completed. But, whether current rise from 101.65 represents the resumption of whole up trend from 79.75 remains to be seen. Note that above mentioned medium term projection target of 100% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 128.31 and 100% projection of 101.65 to 121.38 from 108.99 at 128.72 are in proximity to 78.6% of 135.20 to 101.65 at 127.95. This cluster resistance zone will be important to determine the long term trend.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.55; (P) 166.82; (R1) 167.29

EUR/JPY's rally resumes today by breaking to new record high of 167.27 so far. As discussed before, rise from 164.23 is treated as resumption of rally from 161.49. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 166.19 support holds and current rally is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 161.49 to 166.94 from 164.23 at 167.60 first.

However, below 166.19 will argue that the rise from 164.23 has completed and is indeed part of a lengthier consolidation that started at 166.94. In such case, another fall to retest 164.23 low could be seen before finishing the consolidation. But downside is expected to be contained above 61.8% retracement of 161.49 to 166.94 at 163.57 and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rally from 130.60 is still in progress and the interpretation remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. With 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 taken out decisively, next upside target will be 100% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 173.22.

On the downside, it will take a break of 161.49 support to indicate rise from 150.75 has completed. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor even in case of pull back

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-05T16:09:00.000+07:00

GBP / USD
5 July 2007 13:44:11
Price ; 2.0159

Expected Range : 2.0206 - 2.0087
Support : 2.0138 / 2.0115 / 2.0081
Resistance : 2.0195 / 2.0229 / 2.0252
Recommendation : sell 2.0130, Sl 2.0180, TP 2.0080
buy 2.0210, SL 2.0160, TP 2.0260

EUR/USD
5 July 2007 13:57:51
Price ; 1.3614

Expected Range : 1.3680 - 1.3535
Support : 1.3601 / 1.3590 / 1.3575
Resistance : 1.3627 / 1.3642 / 1.3653
Recommendation : sell 1.3600, SL 1.3650, TP 1.3550
buy 1.3535-40, SL 1.3485, TP 1.3585

USD / JPY
5 July 2007 14:20:48
Price ; 122.78

Expected Range : 122.65 / 122.36 / 122.03
Support : 122.65 / 122.36 / 122.03
Resistance : 122.86 / 123.03 / 123.36
Recommendation : buy 122.90, SL 122.40, TP 123.40
sell 122.60, SL 123.10, TP 122.10

USD/CHF
5 July 2007 14:43:54
Price ; 1.2156

Expected Range : 1.2259 - 1.2091
Support : 1.2149 / 1.2135 / 1.2126
Resistance : 1.2172 / 1.2181 / 1.2195
Recommendation : sell 1.2140, SL 1.2190, TP 1.2090
buy 1.2170, SL 1.2120, TP 1.2220

OUR RECOMMENDATION

2007-07-05T08:37:00.000+07:00

NIKKEI
5 July 2007 07:15:08

Expected Range 18150 - 18285
Support 18150 / 18080 / 18000
Resistance 18275 / 18320 / 18350
Recommendation Sell 18285
TP 18185, SL 18335

KOSPI
5 July 2007 07:16:30

Expected Range 233.50 - 236.00
Support 233.50 / 233.00 / 232.50
Resistance 236.00 / 236.50 / 237.00
Recommendation Sell 236.00
TP 235.00 / SL 236.50

GBP / USD
5 July 2007 00:21:17
Closed:2.0154

Expected Range 2.0200 - 2.0130
Support 2.0141 / 2.0102 / 2.0084
Resistance 2.0191 / 2.0203 / 2.0240
Recommendation Buy 2.0130 TP 2.0200 SL 2.0086
Sell 2.0193 SL 2.0120 SL 2.0205

EUR/USD
5 July 2007 00:13:28
Closed;1.3623

Expected Range 1.3580 - 1.3693
Support 1.3604/ 1.3582 / 1.3543
Resistance 1.3640 / 1.3686 / 1.3703
Recommendation Buy 1.3610 TP 1.3686 SL 1.3580
Sell 1.3650 TP 1.3580 SL 1.3680

USD / JPY
5 July 2007 00:16:55
Closed:122.61

Expected Range 121.70 - 122.92
Support 122.34 / 122.00 / 121.66
Resistance 122.92 / 123.18 / 123.64
Recommendation Sell 122.80 TP 122.05 SL 123.00

USD/CHF
5 July 2007 00:23:30
Closed:1.2163

Expected Range 1.2080 - 1.2180
Support 1.2140 / 1.2105 / 1.2084
Resistance 1.2184 / 1.2203 / 1.2230
Recommendation Sell 1.2185 TP 1.2110 SL 1.2200